Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

000 
FXUS64 KCRP 060909
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
309 AM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

.SHORT TERM...

Similar to yesterday, fog has developed across South Texas early 
this morning and a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 9am. By mid 
morning a weak front will push south through the area and northerly 
winds around 10 knots will help the fog dissipate. By late 
afternoon, dewpoints will fall to the 40s and skies will clear. We 
won't see a big change in temperatures today, with highs in the 
upper 70s to low 80s but lows will fall to the near 50 degrees 
tonight. Surface high pressure will build south overnight and dry 
weather with temperatures in the low 70s are expected for Saturday. 

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...

Upper level ridge shifts east by Saturday night setting up an 
onshore flow once again. Will increase low level moisture, but deep 
moisture return will be limited. With dpts back into the mid 60s by 
Sunday night, could start to see some overnight fog concerns for 
Sunday night and Monday night before our next cold front moves 
through the area Tuesday morning. ECMWF has come more into line with 
the quicker/drier GFS solution, moving the front through Tuesday 
morning and then bringing in some drier air by Wednesday. Will still 
have a fair chance for showers east, but wouldn't expect much in the 
way of rainfall totals. Mid levels appear too warm for much chance 
of thunder with the frontal passage.  Ahead of the front 
temperatures warm into the upper 70s to around 80 Sunday, then well 
above normal into the lower to mid 80s by Monday. 

Behind the front will see a significantly cooler day on Tuesday with 
highs only in the 60s. Will gradually see a decrease in cloud cover 
in the afternoon as upper level winds shift around to the north as 
well. High pressure will be short lived as another upper system 
moves into the southwestern US by Wednesday into Thursday. Moisture 
return looks a bit better mid-week with Gulf moisture and possibly 
some Pacific moisture moving into the area. This trough looks slow 
to move across the area and should result in slight chances for 
rain...possibly for a few days and more normal temperatures. 


&&

.MARINE... 

Patchy fog will continue across the bays and nearshore waters 
through mid morning, then a weak cold front will move across the 
waters by mid to late morning. Overnight weak to moderate offshore
flow is expected and will continue through Saturday.Winds will become weak onshore Saturday night into Sunday. The flow 
will strengthen to moderate levels Sunday night into Monday in 
advance of the next cold front. The front will push offshore early 
Tuesday morning with SCA conditions likely over the Gulf waters 
Tuesday through Tuesday night. Scattered showers will affect the 
waters Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    79  50  69  53  77  /  10   0   0   0   0 
Victoria          75  47  69  49  76  /  10   0   0   0   0 
Laredo            78  50  71  53  78  /   0   0   0   0   0 
Alice             81  49  72  51  80  /  10   0   0   0   0 
Rockport          76  51  67  56  73  /  10   0   0   0   0 
Cotulla           78  46  70  48  78  /   0   0   0   0   0 
Kingsville        81  50  72  53  79  /  10   0   0   0   0 
Navy Corpus       75  54  66  58  73  /  10   0   0   0   0 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning For the following 
     zones: Aransas Islands...Bee...Calhoun Islands...Coastal 
     Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...Coastal Kleberg...Coastal 
     Nueces...Coastal Refugio...Coastal San Patricio...Duval...
     Goliad...Inland Calhoun...Inland Kleberg...Inland Nueces...
     Inland Refugio...Inland San Patricio...Jim Wells...Kleberg 
     Islands...La Salle...Live Oak...McMullen...Nueces Islands...
     Victoria...Webb.

GM...None.

&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations