Scientific Forecaster Discussion
000 FXUS64 KCRP 060909 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 309 AM CST Fri Dec 6 2019 .SHORT TERM... Similar to yesterday, fog has developed across South Texas early this morning and a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 9am. By mid morning a weak front will push south through the area and northerly winds around 10 knots will help the fog dissipate. By late afternoon, dewpoints will fall to the 40s and skies will clear. We won't see a big change in temperatures today, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s but lows will fall to the near 50 degrees tonight. Surface high pressure will build south overnight and dry weather with temperatures in the low 70s are expected for Saturday. && .LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)... Upper level ridge shifts east by Saturday night setting up an onshore flow once again. Will increase low level moisture, but deep moisture return will be limited. With dpts back into the mid 60s by Sunday night, could start to see some overnight fog concerns for Sunday night and Monday night before our next cold front moves through the area Tuesday morning. ECMWF has come more into line with the quicker/drier GFS solution, moving the front through Tuesday morning and then bringing in some drier air by Wednesday. Will still have a fair chance for showers east, but wouldn't expect much in the way of rainfall totals. Mid levels appear too warm for much chance of thunder with the frontal passage. Ahead of the front temperatures warm into the upper 70s to around 80 Sunday, then well above normal into the lower to mid 80s by Monday. Behind the front will see a significantly cooler day on Tuesday with highs only in the 60s. Will gradually see a decrease in cloud cover in the afternoon as upper level winds shift around to the north as well. High pressure will be short lived as another upper system moves into the southwestern US by Wednesday into Thursday. Moisture return looks a bit better mid-week with Gulf moisture and possibly some Pacific moisture moving into the area. This trough looks slow to move across the area and should result in slight chances for rain...possibly for a few days and more normal temperatures. && .MARINE... Patchy fog will continue across the bays and nearshore waters through mid morning, then a weak cold front will move across the waters by mid to late morning. Overnight weak to moderate offshore flow is expected and will continue through Saturday.Winds will become weak onshore Saturday night into Sunday. The flow will strengthen to moderate levels Sunday night into Monday in advance of the next cold front. The front will push offshore early Tuesday morning with SCA conditions likely over the Gulf waters Tuesday through Tuesday night. Scattered showers will affect the waters Monday night into Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 79 50 69 53 77 / 10 0 0 0 0 Victoria 75 47 69 49 76 / 10 0 0 0 0 Laredo 78 50 71 53 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 Alice 81 49 72 51 80 / 10 0 0 0 0 Rockport 76 51 67 56 73 / 10 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 78 46 70 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 81 50 72 53 79 / 10 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 75 54 66 58 73 / 10 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning For the following zones: Aransas Islands...Bee...Calhoun Islands...Coastal Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...Coastal Kleberg...Coastal Nueces...Coastal Refugio...Coastal San Patricio...Duval... Goliad...Inland Calhoun...Inland Kleberg...Inland Nueces... Inland Refugio...Inland San Patricio...Jim Wells...Kleberg Islands...La Salle...Live Oak...McMullen...Nueces Islands... Victoria...Webb. GM...None. &&