Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kcrp 222109
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
309 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2019
Short term (tonight through Saturday night)...
As of writing, a cold front is currently sagging through south
Texas. The boundary is just to the north of Corpus Christi near
Mathis. Northerly winds have developed in the wake of the front
with gusts up to 20 knots at times. Temperatures have also dropped
roughly 10 degrees or so behind the front. An expansive cloud deck
has kept temperature cooler than expected this afternoon. Showers
have developed across the coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads as
moisture pools ahead of the front. The front will continue to
push south, exiting the region in the next few hours. Weak
isentropic lift in the 300k layer may lead to additional light
rain/drizzle along the immediate coast this evening and overnight
before we begin to dry out on Saturday. Temperatures tonight will
range from the mid 40s across our northern counties to the mid to
upper 50s along the coast.
Drier air will filter into the region on Saturday with pwats
falling to around 0.75". Clouds will gradually clear out resulting
in high temps in the low to mid 70s with a light northerly wind.
Light winds and clear skies will lead to another cool night
Saturday with lows once again in the mid 40s to upper 50s.
Long term (sunday through friday)...
Extended period begins with dry subsident flow across the coastal
Bend. Flow turns onshore and strengthens on Monday, associated with
an upper disturbance moving into the Central Plains. This initial
impulse will do little more than an increase in clouds and warmer
Models then focus on a second impulse toward midweek, driving a weak
front down close to the coastal Bend. Models are not confident on
whether this front will reach US or not, but either way it will
quickly lift back northward away from our area. It's still a long
way off, but the initial look at the Holiday suggests warmer
temperatures with just isolated chances for showers toward the
a cold front will push offshore shortly with isolated showers
possible over the coastal waters through early Saturday morning. A
weak to moderate northerly flow will kick in behind the front.
Scec conditions are expected with gusts around 20 knots possible.
Will continue to monitor trends to see if a Small Craft Advisory will be needed
later this evening. Winds will weaken and rain chances will
diminish Saturday morning leading to a day of clear skies and
light northerly winds. Weak onshore flow will return Sunday
night, becoming moderate by Tuesday ahead of the next cold front.
Flow may briefly turn easterly Tuesday night or Wednesday, but
will return onshore no later than Wednesday night. A slight chance
to chance of rain is possible Tuesday through Thursday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 54 71 52 73 58 / 10 0 0 0 0
Victoria 48 70 46 72 54 / 10 0 0 0 0
Laredo 54 73 54 77 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
Alice 54 74 51 77 57 / 10 0 0 0 0
Rockport 53 69 54 70 60 / 20 0 0 0 0
Cotulla 49 73 49 77 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
Kingsville 55 72 53 76 58 / 10 0 0 0 0
Navy corpus 56 67 57 70 62 / 20 10 0 0 0