Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kcle 171025
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
625 am EDT Tue Sep 17 2019
high pressure at the surface will drift to New England through
the week then shift southward to the Middle Atlantic States over
the weekend. A cold front may approach the region Saturday
night into Sunday.
Near term /through Wednesday/...
cloud cover has not developed as anticipated with 2 separate
areas. One across the eastern third of the County Warning Area and the other
across Northwest Ohio leaving the central areas clear. Thinking is that
the cloud cover will still fill in across central areas for a
few hours this morning before lifting and dissipating. The cloud
cover should impact temperatures most across the west with some
lower 70s likely near the Lakeshore from Sandusky to near
Toledo. Elsewhere highs will mostly be in the middle to upper
70s, maybe touching 80 across the south.
Skies should become mostly clear to clear for tonight with winds
attempting to decouple inland. Inland locations should see
temperatures dip into the lower to mid 50s. Closer to the Lake
A land breeze should develop. This should help to keep temperatures
up a little bit with upper 50s to around 60 common.
High pressure continues to dominate the region on Wednesday
with warm and dry conditions. Highs will range from the mid to
upper 70s across northwest PA to the mid 80s across Northwest Ohio.
Short term /Wednesday night through Friday night/...
large upper level ridge will dominate the eastern United States
through this forecast period. The amplification of the ridge
with time will take place as an upper level trough digs into the
western United States. All in all, the local weather pattern is
shaping up to be a Winner through the end of the work week.
Surface high pressure will build south into the eastern Seaboard
during this time and settle in over the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia region by
Friday. The high will force warm air into the region each
period. Fair weather will be the rule. Will be bumping
temperatures up about 3 degrees as guidance temperatures
continue to run about 3 to 5 degrees cooler than actual.
Long term /Saturday through Monday/...
upper level ridge over the eastern half of the United States will
begin to transition east and become elongated in response to
weakening western United States trough lifting northeast into
central Canada. The upper level trough will result in surface low
pressure near James Bay by Saturday night. The low will force a
cold front east across the local area by Monday morning. Moisture
will begin to move into the region Saturday night and continue
through Monday ahead of the cold front. Expecting the threat of
showers and thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front during this
period. Otherwise, warm air advection will continue through the
period on the west side of the high pressure over the western
Atlantic and ahead of the cold front. Bumped up temperatures a few
degrees each period.
Aviation /12z Tuesday through Saturday/...
cloud cover has not developed as anticipated with 2 areas of
non-VFR ceilings. The first area was located across Northwest Ohio with
another east of a line from near k4i3 to kcgf to Keri. Current
thinking is the the lower clouds will spread westward from
eastern Ohio through the morning but will lift and erode from
east to west as they do. So timing them in and out of the kmfd
area will likely be difficult. The MVFR ceilings should linger
the longest across Northwest Ohio and may not reach VFR levels until
around 16z. All locations will be VFR by afternoon then
continue that way into the night.
Northeast to east winds will be common through tonight.
Strongest winds will occur this afternoon with a slight uptick
near the Lakeshore. This will mainly impact kcle and Keri. Wind
speeds shouldn't exceed 14 knots.
Outlook...non-VFR possible Saturday morning in patchy fog.
northeast flow on the lake will persist through tonight but
winds should remain light. This flow does not support the need
for small craft advisories. Flow will gradually shift around to
the southeast Wednesday night and diminish to less than 10
knots. Otherwise, light southeast winds will become south-
southwest by Friday and continue into Saturday under the
influence of high pressure over the eastern United States.