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fxus61 kcle 131723 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
1223 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019

a high pressure center moves from the upper Ohio Valley this
morning to New England by Thursday afternoon. Another
reinforcing cold front sweeps east through the local area
Thursday evening followed by another high pressure ridge Friday
into the weekend. Temperatures will slowly moderate but remain
slightly below average through the weekend.


Near term /through Thursday/...
no changes to the forecast at this Time. Lake effect snow is
limited to the far eastern portions of Erie and Crawford
counties in Pennsylvania with coverage quickly diminishing early
this afternoon. Broken mid-level clouds have overspread the
region and will persist into Thursday as expected. Temperatures
are slowly recovering from this morning's record lows, but cloud
cover is hampering insolation to allow for temperatures to get
more than into the 20s.

Previous discussion...
Arctic high pressure over the Ohio Valley this morning will
continue eastward today. Cold temperatures surging ahead of this
high brought record cold temperatures early this morning and
temperatures remain about 20 degrees below normal late this
morning. An 850 mb ridge supporting this surface high pressure
is propagating through the forecast area late this morning with
the ridge axis entering the snow belt region. As this ridge
continues east, flow over the region is becoming southerly and
is allowing for lake effect snow to diminish and be pushed over
Lake Erie and off the land areas. With this, believe that any
snow accumulations will be minor and have ended all winter
weather headlines for the northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania snowbelt, as they are probably overkill at this

Behind the 850 mb ridge axis, dry air is entering the region
along with some modest warm air advection in the low levels. For
today, this will just clear out some of the low clouds in the
region, but will be helpful in our temperature recovery for
Thursday as highs return to the 30s. Some mid level moisture
remains trapped over the region as a new trough digs at the
western Great Lakes region. This will allow for fairly cloudy
skies with some breaks over the next 24 hours or so. A weak
surface trough will move north of the region tomorrow and
probably will not be a factor for our area weather wise. Some
southerly winds ahead of this feature will be noticeable over
the region for Thursday. As this trough swings through, some
lake effect rain and snow will be possible late on Thursday into
Thursday night and have slight precipitation chances late in
the period.


Short term /Thursday night through Saturday night/...
upper level trough will shift east of the area Thursday night allowing
broad upper level ridge to build into the area. The ridge will
shift east Saturday night allowing a weak shortwave trough to
move east over the region. A surface trough over the local area
will move east of the region Thursday night setting up a
potential for some weak lake effect that will be primarily over
Lake Erie Thursday night into Friday morning. Expecting the lake
effect to skim the shoreline area northeast of Cleveland. Then,
as a cold front moves southeast across the area Friday
afternoon and evening followed by high pressure, the lake effect
is expected to shift inland over northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania before finally ending Friday night. Rest of the
area should see fair weather through the forecast period as the
high pressure builds in across the region. Moderating
temperatures will take place as the high pressure builds into
the region.


Long term /Sunday through Tuesday/...
upper level ridge and resultant surface high pressure will move
east of the area Sunday allowing an upper level trough to swing
east over the eastern United States by Monday night. The trough
will deepen considerably as an amplifying ridge over the
western United States builds into The Rockies. The upper level
trough will then become negatively tilted by Tuesday and will
keep an elongated surface trough from the Great Lakes to the
southeastern United States. Some wrap around moisture from a
coastal low off the coast of Maine could spill back west over
the local area by Tuesday. With surface trough in place, can't
rule out possibility of a slight chance for showers/snow showers
across the entire forecast area Monday night and Tuesday.
Otherwise, fair weather is expected early in the period. Further
moderation of temperatures is expected through the period as
high pressure moves east of the region with a bit of warm air


Aviation /18z Wednesday through Monday/...
quiet, VFR taf period is expected across the region as high
pressure settles to the southeast of the area and southerly flow
over the region disperses any lake effect snow and clouds out
of the terminals. Some trapped mid-level moisture over the
region will allow for mid-level broken to overcast conditions to
continue through the entire period. A system will approach from
the northwest for Thursday and southerly winds may increase
over the region with gusts to 20 knots possible closest to the
Lake Erie shoreline. No precipitation is expected to develop
during the taf period with this system at this time.

Outlook...periods of non-VFR possible in the snowbelt in
rain/snow showers on Friday afternoon/evening.


Small Craft Advisory will continue to be whittled away piece by
piece from west to east. Will drop a small portion off the
western end of the advisory through about Willowick. The rest of
the advisory is expected to be cancelled later this morning as
winds shift around to the south later today. Break will be short
lived as a cold front slides into the area Friday. Will likely
need another Small Craft Advisory Thursday through at least
Saturday over the eastern three fourths of the lake. Flow shifts
away from the Lakeshore Sunday reducing small craft threat.


Arctic air has settled into the area this morning and will begin to
move east of the local area today. The unseasonably cold air
will cause temperatures to plummet to some of the coldest
readings so far this season.

Below are the coldest temperatures on record for selected dates
at our six climate sites:

Wednesday, November 13:

Coldest high (year) coldest low (year)

Akron-Canton area:25 (1911)12 (1911)
Cleveland area: 22 (1911) 15 (1911)
Erie area: 23 (1911)16 (1911)
Mansfield area:27 (1986)13 (1986)
Toledo area:22 (1986)13 (1911)
Youngstown area:29 (1996)17 (1986)


Cle watches/warnings/advisories...


near term...sefcovic
short term...Lombardy

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