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fxus61 kcle 130839 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
339 am EST Wed Nov 13 2019

..lake effect snow slowly decreasing later today for the
primary snowbelt areas...

a high pressure center moves from the upper Ohio Valley this
morning to New England by Thursday afternoon. Another
reinforcing cold front sweeps east through the local area
Thursday evening followed by another high pressure ridge Friday
into the weekend. Temperatures will slowly moderate but remain
slightly below average through the weekend.


Near term /through Thursday/...
the big weather story this morning is the record cold and remain
lake effect snow showers. We are still seeing a few bands of
lake effect snow showers continuing this morning with a westerly
flow gradually shifting to more of a southwesterly flow. As of
this discussion, one band was on the western side of the
Cleveland Metro area and another one on the northeastern side.
These bands will gradually shift northeastward as the flow
changes to more southwesterly. The band on the west side of the
Cleveland Metro area may move over the downtown area around the
morning rush hour and cause additional travel impacts before it
lifts out. It is noticeable that the Arctic dry airmass is also
cutting away at some of the lake effect as well this morning. We
continue to see the intensity and organization slowly decreased
overnight with the bands. Will continue the ongoing winter
weather advisories for lake effect snow with additional 1 to 3
inches possible mainly in the primary snowbelt areas this
morning. Will also downgrade the inland Erie PA warning to an
advisory at this time with several inches possible before the
lake effect shuts down for this event. Guidance indicates that
the flow will become more offshore or south- southwesterly for
the Lakeshore areas of Erie PA between 18z and 21z which should
push the lake effect snow showers into southwestern New York by
this afternoon.

Southerly winds return by late this afternoon and evening on the
back side of the exiting Arctic high pressure center. High and
mid level cloudiness will move in later today ahead of the next
clipper like system. We will see temperatures fall into the
lower and middle 20s tonight. The clipper like system and upper
level trough moves across on Thursday. A weak front will move
through late on Thursday. Temperatures slowly moderate but
remain below average in the near term.


Short term /Thursday night through Saturday night/...
upper level trough will shift east of the area Thursday night allowing
broad upper level ridge to build into the area. The ridge will
shift east Saturday night allowing a weak shortwave trough to
move east over the region. A surface trough over the local area
will move east of the region Thursday night setting up a
potential for some weak lake effect that will be primarily over
Lake Erie Thursday night into Friday morning. Expecting the lake
effect to skim the shoreline area northeast of Cleveland. Then,
as a cold front moves southeast across the area Friday
afternoon and evening followed by high pressure, the lake effect
is expected to shift inland over northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania before finally ending Friday night. Rest of the
area should see fair weather through the forecast period as the
high pressure builds in across the region. Moderating
temperatures will take place as the high pressure builds into
the region.


Long term /Sunday through Tuesday/...
upper level ridge and resultant surface high pressure will move
east of the area Sunday allowing an upper level trough to swing
east over the eastern United States by Monday night. The trough
will deepen considerably as an amplifying ridge over the
western United States builds into The Rockies. The upper level
trough will then become negatively tilted by Tuesday and will
keep an elongated surface trough from the Great Lakes to the
southeastern United States. Some wrap around moisture from a
coastal low off the coast of Maine could spill back west over
the local area by Tuesday. With surface trough in place, can't
rule out possibility of a slight chance for showers/snow showers
across the entire forecast area Monday night and Tuesday.
Otherwise, fair weather is expected early in the period. Further
moderation of temperatures is expected through the period as
high pressure moves east of the region with a bit of warm air


Aviation /06z Wednesday through Sunday/...
VFR is expected for the taf period with the exception of the
primary snowbelt areas through the early morning hours. MVFR
ceilings and visibilities will continue through the early
morning hours because of localized lake effect snow bands
across far northeast Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania. These
lake effect snow bands and clouds will eventually decrease and
dissipate later this morning with VFR expected for all sites
later today and tonight. Winds will shift to more westerly 5 to
11 knots and eventually southwesterly during the later morning.
Winds will end up becoming southerly late in the taf period.

Outlook...periods of non-VFR possible in the snowbelt in
rain/snow showers on Friday afternoon/evening.


Small Craft Advisory will continue to be whittled away piece by
piece from west to east. Will drop a small portion off the
western end of the advisory through about Willowick. The rest of
the advisory is expected to be cancelled later this morning as
winds shift around to the south later today. Break will be short
lived as a cold front slides into the area Friday. Will likely
need another Small Craft Advisory Thursday through at least
Saturday over the eastern three fourths of the lake. Flow shifts
away from the Lakeshore Sunday reducing small craft threat.


Arctic air has settled into the area this morning and will begin to
move east of the local area today. The unseasonably cold air
will cause temperatures to plummet to some of the coldest
readings so far this season.

Below are the coldest temperatures on record for selected dates
at our six climate sites:

Wednesday, November 13:

Coldest high (year) coldest low (year)

Akron-Canton area:25 (1911)12 (1911)
Cleveland area: 22 (1911) 15 (1911)
Erie area: 23 (1911)16 (1911)
Mansfield area:27 (1986)13 (1986)
Toledo area:22 (1986)13 (1911)
Youngstown area:29 (1996)17 (1986)


Cle watches/warnings/advisories...
Ohio...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 am EST this morning for
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 am EST this morning for
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 9 am EST this morning for
Small Craft Advisory until 4 am EST early this morning for


near term...Griffin
short term...Lombardy

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