Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kcle 141115
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
615 am EST Thu Nov 14 2019
a weak cold front will move southeast across the region this
afternoon. High pressure will briefly build in from the west
tonight ahead of another cold front due in on Friday. High
pressure will move east across the Great Lakes on Saturday.
Near term /through tonight/...
update...light snow was moving east and should exit the area in
another couple hours. No big changes for the morning update.
Original...weak warm advection/isentropic lift taking place
across the region tonight ahead of an approaching upper trough
and cold front. The system was moisture starved however radar
showed weak return across the area. Precip was mostly aloft
however across the North Shore from tol to cle snow has been
reported. Would expect this trend to continue with snow moving
into the area area by 4am. For today models show this precip
lifting north out of the area. Expecting more clouds than sun
today as the front and associated upper trough move through.
Could see flurries, especially northwest PA however confidence
low so will leave out for now. Overnight, high pressure and dry
air briefly build in ahead of another cold front due in on
Friday. This second front will also be starved for moisture as
it reaches the area. Best relative humidity will be over northwest PA, however
again, for now will leave out mention in forecast. Highs both
days in the 30s.
Short term /Friday through Sunday night/...
an upper level ridge and resultant surface high pressure center
will pass through the Great Lakes region Friday night and
Saturday. A cold front is expected to move east across the local
area Friday evening and weaken. The flow behind the front
should be favorable for some lake effect precipitation. However,
instability is not exciting at all and the inversion is sitting
around 5000 feet and synoptic moisture is beginning to pull out
to the east with the cold front. Therefore, any chances for
precipitation will be minimal. Flow does eventually shift to
more northerly cutting off lake moisture supply. So, will just
mention a slight chance for precipitation in the extreme
northeast. Otherwise, the forecast area will remain dry through
this period under the influence of the high pressure building
in. A warming trend will take place into the weekend with
temperatures climbing back to near normal with highs in the 40s
and lows in the 30s.
Long term /Monday through Wednesday/...
an upper level trough will dive into the eastern United States
during the latter half of the weekend and eventually become
negatively tilted by Monday. This feature will result in a weak
surface low over central Canada with a surface trough extending
south across the middle Mississippi Valley region. As the upper
level trough becomes negatively tilted, deep cyclogenesis will
take place over the southeastern United States and move up the
East Coast. This feature will force cyclonic flow back into the
local area by Wednesday. There is a slight chance for some
precipitation from this system as models have been trending
toward a slightly more west track with each run. Otherwise, it
should be relatively quiet with a continued trend of near normal
high and low temperatures in the 40s and 30s respectively.
Aviation /12z Thursday through Monday/...
weak warm advection occurring ahead of a cold front and weak
upper trough approaching from the northwest. Radar shows weak
returns across the area and were reaching the ground across
mainly the eastern half of the area. Will carry at Keri with a
couple hours of MVFR but otherwise will keep dry. Otherwise,
the cold front moves through during the afternoon. System is
moisture starved so expecting VFR conditions with no precip
except for possibly the Keri area late afternoon. Confidence of
anything occurring is low so for now left precip out.
Outlook...non-VFR possible in low cigs Friday. Non-VFR possible
a Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed tonight through
Saturday morning as a cold front moves southeast across the
area. Winds will gradually diminish Saturday afternoon through
Monday as high pressure begins to build in over the lake from