Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kcle 200150
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
950 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019
weak surface ridging will extend from high pressure over New England
through the weekend. Low pressure will track out of the plains to
the upper Midwest on Monday, lifting a warm front north across the
area. A cold front will follow early Tuesday morning as low pressure
continues to slowly track northeast towards Hudson Bay through mid-
Near term /through Sunday night/...
high pressure will be nudged eastward through the night as a
weakening trough/cold front approaches from the western Great
Lakes. Clouds have increased slightly faster than anticipated
so nudged them up for the night. Warmer tonight with lows
mostly in the 40's.
Cant rule out a few sprinkles around sunrise but confidence is
too low to even mention. So have removed this mention from
the forecast. Warmer on Sunday with highs ranging from the mid
60's to around 70 degrees. Early highs closer to the lake with a
lake breeze developing for the afternoon.
Southerly winds will be on the increase Sunday night as
stronger low pressure moves toward the western Great Lakes.
Still no rain expected for Sunday night but the southerly winds
will bring some low level moisture back into the region. So
expect to see an increase in cloud cover through the night with
lows holding in the mid 40's to lower 50's.
Short term /Monday through Tuesday night/...
a pattern change will be occurring during the short term forecast
period as an upper trough over the central Continental U.S. Will become closed
and support an occluding low over the northern plains. This low will
extend a warm front north of the area on Monday and the forecast
area is expected to get quite warm with highs in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. Rain will begin entering the forecast area late in the
day on Monday as a cold front approaches from the west and a pre-
frontal trough will generate precipitation in the warm sector. Not
expecting much in the way of thunder but the timing of precipitation
has been fairly consistent to go with categorical pops on Monday
night into Tuesday.
The front passes the forecast area on Tuesday and will be quick to
dry from west to east. Enough synoptic moisture and cool air over
the lake will allow for some residual lake effect over NE Ohio and northwest
PA and will keep a chance pop for now. The occluding low will
continue to deepen and meander over the northern lakes and will
allow for strong west to southwest winds over the region into
Wednesday. High pressure and dry air enter on Wednesday afternoon
and dry conditions with calming winds are expected. Temperatures on
Tuesday into Wednesday will be near seasonal averages behind the
Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
high pressure and some slight upper level ridging over the region
will keep the forecast dry for Wednesday night through Friday.
Neutral advection over the region should keep temperatures around
normal. A sharp pattern change is expected to begin next weekend as
a deep trough enters the central United States and draws some
considerably cold air down from Canada. A front will set up
somewhere near the region on Saturday and could bring a chance for
rain before the cold shot enters for Sunday.
Aviation /00z Sunday through Thursday/...
VFR conditions are expected through the night. However there may
be some lower end VFR ceilings that attempt to lower to around
5000 feet after 08z. These would mainly be located across the
west with a very low chance of seeing some sprinkles. Otherwise
winds will become light from the south and southeast. A lake
breeze may develop Sunday afternoon with northerly winds increase
to around 8 knots at kcle and Keri.
Outlook...non-VFR possible in showers Monday afternoon through
Tuesday morning. Non-VFR possible in lake-effect rain showers
at/near Keri Tuesday evening into Wednesday.
Lake Erie will remain on the periphery of high pressure through
Monday as a weakening low pressure system skirts up the East Coast.
Winds will be light and variable through Sunday night when flow
becomes more southeasterly over the area. A warm front will lift
north of the lake on Monday increasing the southeasterly flow over
the basin. Occluding low pressure over the northern plains will
extend a cold front over the area on Tuesday. Winds will increase to
15 to 20 knots on Monday night ahead of the front and then shift to
the southwest. The occluding low will sit north of the lake on
Tuesday night into Wednesday and southwest flow will strengthen over
the lake. Winds and waves will be strong enough to merit at least a
Small Craft Advisory, but with the strong pressure gradient, cannot
rule out the need for gales down the Road. High pressure enters from
the south on Wednesday afternoon and winds will begin relaxing over