Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kcle 161101
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
701 am EDT Mon Sep 16 2019
weak low pressure and a trailing cold front will push southeast
across the area today. High pressure will slowly build southeast
across the region beginning tonight, becoming centered over the
East Coast by the end of the week.
Near term /through Tuesday/...
a cold front will sink south across the area through the day,
with a few showers possible with the frontal passage. The best
chances will be across northwest PA and far northeast OH, where
some stronger 850-700mb frontogenesis will move through the
area. Have actually backed off a bit on pops across the western
half of the area through the day given recent observational
trends and fairly weak low level forcing. Precip chances should
diminish across most of the area as the front moves south of
the region this afternoon, with some drier air moving in as
well. Have held on to some slight chance pops across far Northwest Ohio
into the late afternoon/early evening, where models continue to
show decent low level moisture and some lingering convergence as
high pressure begins to build southeast through the Great
Lakes. Otherwise, the surface high will continue to build east
across the Great Lakes the rest of tonight and Tuesday,
providing dry conditions. Highs today and Tuesday will range
from the mid 70s across northwest PA to the upper 70s/near 80
Short term /Tuesday night through Thursday night/...
high pressure will ridge into the area from New England as an upper
level ridge strengthens. This will mean dry conditions through the
short term. Have gone higher than the model blends for high
temperatures since they have been verifying way too cool the last
few weeks. Highs through the short term will range from the mid 70s
northwest PA to the upper 80s across Northwest Ohio.
Long term /Friday through Sunday/...
warmer southerly winds develop by Friday with dry conditions
continuing into at least Saturday evening. A cold front may be close
enough Saturday night into Sunday to warrant the mention of a few
showers. Otherwise will continue the trend of forecasting high
temperatures above the model blends. Highs through the long term
should be well into the 80s for most locations. A few lower 90s are
possible Friday and Saturday.
Aviation /12z Monday through Friday/...
low pressure and an attendant cold front will move southeast
through the area during the first half of the period period.
Some MVFR ceilings possible with and behind the frontal passage,
with scattering clouds possible later in the period. Aside from
a rain showers at Keri and possibly kyng, conditions expected to be dry
at the terminals. Some late period MVFR to IFR ceilings
possible, mainly at ktol and kfdy. Light/southerly winds will
become northerly as the front moves south through the terminals
late this morning through this afternoon, and more northeast
towards the end of the period.
Outlook...non-VFR possible early Tuesday.
a wind shift will cross the lake today as high pressure ridges
southward from Ontario. Northeast winds will increase to 10 to 15
knots for a few hours this afternoon into the evening. Expect waves
to build to 2 to 4 feet. At this point we will hold off on any
High pressure will remain in control through the middle of the week
with northeast winds gradually shifting to the southeast on
Wednesday. Southerly winds return for Thursday into Friday.