Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kcle 200203
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
903 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2019
weak high pressure will remain over the region through Wednesday
evening. Low pressure will develop and track northeast through
the upper Midwest Thursday, with a trailing cold front pushing
east across the area Thursday night into Friday. Another area of
low pressure will develop across the lower Ohio Valley and track
across the region on Saturday. High pressure builds back in on
Near term /through Wednesday night/...
clouds are struggling to redevelop even though latest upper air
soundings indicate strong inversion. Actually, some clearing
continues to develop at this time. Still thinking that clouds
will be in and out of the area overnight so will pull back on
cloud cover slightly. Otherwise, no other major changes with
The gloomy weather pattern will continue through the next 24 to
36 hours with weak steering currents in the lower atmosphere.
Weak high pressure is over the area with very light surface
winds along with a shallow and moist lower column. In fact,
winds were very weak up to 850 mb along with a saturated
airmass. Hence, the low stratus deck, light mist, and some light
fog will continue tonight and Wednesday morning. Any precip
will be very light or a trace. Dewpoints are in the lower to
middle 30s and that is where our overnight temperatures will
fall down to.
The overall surface flow remains weak on Wednesday with weak
high pressure near the area. Wednesday will be very similar as
today with cloudy skies and temperatures only climbing back into
the lower and middle 40s. Upper level heights begin to rise and
slight upper level ridging takes place by Wednesday evening and
night. A light southerly wind with return and increase by early
Thursday morning. We may lose some of the low stratus clouds but
they will be replace by high and mid level cloudiness.
Short term /Thursday through Friday night/...
Tuesday will be mild and breezy as a storm system passes by to the
northwest and its trailing cold front approach the region. Moisture
will increase during the day and showers will likely develop or move
into the region in the afternoon. The cold front will move across
the region Thursday night and showers will linger the first part of
the night and diminish from the west after midnight. On Friday high
pressure will build east across the region but moisture will linger
over the central and eastern portion of the area and a few showers
are possible which could be mixed with snow in the higher terrain of
the snowbelt. Friday night and into Saturday a low pressure system
will develop and move into the Tennessee and Ohio valleys and spread moisture
northward into the region. Light precipitation is expected to
spread into the region on Saturday. It will be cold enough for snow
early Saturday but the boundary layer will be warm enough to change
the precipitation to rain for the afternoon. Amounts will be light.
Milder conditions will persist over the lake so just rain is
Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
a weak system will exit the region Saturday night and lingering
light rain may change back to light snow before ending early Sunday.
Fair weather is expected early next week as high pressure builds
over the region. Moisture will begin to increase later Tuesday as
the storm system in the plains intensifies and draws moisture and
warmth northward from the Gulf and into the region.
Aviation /00z Wednesday through Sunday/...
latest model soundings support low level inversion developing
over the western half of the area with plenty of moisture.
Will therefore consider expanding cloud cover through the night
to overcast. Rest of the area should remain overcast as well
along with some mist forming reducing visibilities to MVFR at
times. Stagnant air mass will hang around through tomorrow
morning and then improve in the afternoon. Winds should remain
very light or calm through the forecast period. There is the
possibility that some drizzle could occur overnight but will
leave out of forecast for now.
Outlook...non-VFR possible Thursday and Friday with widespread
the lake will remain quiet until early Thursday as the pressure
gradient remains weak. The pressure gradient will increase Thursday
as a frontal system approaches the lake from the west. The cold
front will cross the lake Thursday night. South to southwest winds
ahead of the front on Thursday will increase to 15-20 knots toward
evening and veer to the west to northwest on Friday. Winds will
increase to 20 to 30 knots for a time Thursday night and diminish
some on Friday. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed Thursday night and
Friday. Fairly tranquil conditions will return to the lake for the
weekend as low pressure slips by to the south.