Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kcle 170135
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
935 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019
high pressure and fair weather should Grace Northern Ohio and
northwest PA through Saturday. Simultaneously, a warming trend
occurs with temperatures expected to be solidly above-normal this
Wednesday through Saturday. A slight cool down and isolated showers
and thunderstorms are expected for the second half of this weekend,
when a cold front should near the region from the northwest.
Near term /through Tuesday night/...
no change with this mid evening update. Some stray stratocu will
drift across the lake. Additional stratus development likely
inland overnight. There may be some patchy fog. Previous
Fair weather will likely Grace Northern Ohio and northwest PA
through Tuesday night as high pressure aloft builds from the
west. At the surface, high pressure builds southwestward from
Quebec and vicinity. Temperatures will remain near or slightly
above-normal across our region. Of note, abundant low-level
moisture just above the surface should allow widespread stratus
to develop via nocturnal cooling this evening through daybreak
Tuesday. Thereafter, daytime heating and increasing subsidence
accompanying the building ridge should erode the stratus by late
morning or early afternoon on Tuesday.
Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/...
an upper ridge over the eastern Continental U.S. Will remain in place
through the short term forecast period. This ridge will support
high pressure over the New England states, which will build
westward through the middle of the week. This will result in dry
conditions for the forecast area. Southerly flow and warm air
advection on the west side of the high will allow for
temperatures to increase through the period to the mid to upper
80s by Thursday, which will be several degrees above normal for
Long term /Friday through Monday/...
the forecast area will remain under an upper ridge and
associated surface high pressure on Friday into Saturday,
keeping the forecast dry and temperatures on the warm side of
normal. A digging trough will enter the central Continental U.S. On
Saturday night and erode the upper ridge from the west. This
trough will support a cold front which will push high pressure
off the East Coast and eventually cross the forecast area on
Sunday night into Monday. Have pops ramping up on Sunday with up
to a 50/50 chance on Sunday night into Monday as timing is
getting slightly slower with the extended guidance. Temperatures
will begin coming down with the frontal passage early next week.
Aviation /00z Tuesday through Saturday/...
VFR and mostly clear to start the taf forecast period. Low level
moisture remains, but have scaled back on the widespread MVFR
for tonight, keeping it inland and for a narrower window. Low
level moisture is there, but last night's forecast was over done
with today's deck. Maybe some MVFR vsby too. Best chances for
tol/fdy/mfd. Winds will remain light northeast with high
pressure sitting northeast of the region.
Outlook...non-VFR possible Saturday.
a choppy afternoon and evening will be expected on Lake Erie
today as high pressure builds in from the north. Northeast flow
will be present over the lake and allow for waves 2 to 3 ft
across the basin. High pressure will continue building southwest
during the week and flow will become light and variable,
allowing for a quiet week on the lake with waves 2 ft or less. A
cold front will approach from the west for the later half of the
weekend and high pressure will begin shifting east out of the
area. Winds will be favored out of the south for the end of the
week ahead of the front but should remain below any headline