Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kcle 240735
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
335 am EDT Wed Jul 24 2019
high pressure will move slowly east today and tonight,
eventually centering itself over Ohio on Thursday. The high
will continue to influence the local area into the weekend as
it shifts to the mid Atlantic coast.
Near term /through Thursday/...
high pressure over the Central Plains will build slowly east
and reach the area on Thursday. Aloft, a positively tilted upper
trough extends across Ohio from Quebec. Cool air aloft
associated with the upper trough along with the Warm Lake will
continue to fuel a limited threat for convection today mainly
east and south. Upper heights will slowly build this afternoon
and tonight as the trough axis shifts east. The NAM however
shows another impulse dropping into nern Ohio and nwrn PA Thursday
morning. The GFS is not as aggressive. Given this and with
upper heights continuing to build, will only have a slight
chance pop east Thursday morning. Highs upper 70s to near 80
west. Highs Thursday lower 80s.
Short term /Thursday night through Saturday night/...
an upper level trough will be east of the area by Thursday
night as surface high pressure and upper level heights increase.
This should mean dry conditions but warmer through the short
term. Temperatures will be warmer than average with highs in the
middle to upper 80s. A couple locations may touch 90.
Long term /Sunday through Tuesday/...
a cold front will move into the central Great Lakes on Sunday
but may not have much influence on thunderstorm chances until
Monday morning. This frontal boundary will be close enough
Monday into Tuesday to mention a chance of thunderstorms. Sunday
will likely be the warmest day with highs in the mid 80s to
around 90. Slightly cooler with increased cloud cover and maybe
some thunderstorms. Highs dip slightly and range from the lower
80s to the upper 80s.
Aviation /06z Wednesday through Sunday/...
upper trough digging into the area overnight with a mid deck
from earlier showers drifting east through the central counties.
Expect conditions to remain VFR through the night. Could see an
isolated shower of thunderstorm eastern half and across the
lake given the warm water and the cool air aloft but will keep
tafs dry for now. Wednesday models show northerly flow off the
lake with continued cold air aloft. Expect a continuation of a
VFR scattered to broken clouds east half with again a slight
chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Isolated MVFR/IFR in wx
winds will continue to shift around to the northwest and north near
the South Shore of Lake Erie through sunrise as a trough swings
across the region. There may be a few showers along this
boundary and any outflow through maybe mid morning. Cooler air
aloft and lift near the showers could produce a waterspout until
shortly after sunrise. Otherwise winds should gradually
decrease in the wake of the trough but remain northerly into
tonight. On Thursday winds shift to the southwest and may
attempt to be just strong enough to build waves to around 4 feet
from Geneva On The Lake to Ripley through afternoon into the
evening. We will take another look at this early Thursday
morning. Winds will then remain southwest into Friday but should
under 15 knots.