Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kcar 161052
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
652 am EDT Tue Jul 16 2019
high pressure will move east of the region today. A cold front
will cross the region Wednesday into Wednesday evening. High
pressure follows for Thursday into Friday and will be followed
by a weak trough Saturday.
Near term /through tonight/...
750 am update...
quick update to ingest hrly temps and dwpts at 10z. Temps dipped
into the u40s acrs the Allagash with higher terrain elsewhere
still in the 50s. No chgs needed at this time.
Prev discussion blo...
sfc ridge axis leading to moclr skies and lgt winds ovr the forecast area
tonight. Upr lvl ridge wl be cresting acrs the state this aftn.
At the same time 500 mb system wl be mvg twd hudson's Bay. Lead S/WV
located nr the up of Michigan wl translate east and help begin to
break ridge down after 21z.
As the ridge begins to break down clds wl be on the increase in
the aftn. All areas wl be in the 80s except along the coast
where a sea breeze wl dvlp.
A wmfnt wl lift into the region tonight with showers
overspreading the north and west aft 00z. With area in the
wmsector and elevated instability present isold thunder can't be
ruled out aft 06z, especially with a cdfnt appchg the state from
Canada. Temps tonight wl be warm and muggy with lows in the 60s.
Short term /Wednesday through Thursday/...
a cold front across the Saint Lawrence River valley at 12z Wed
morning will cross northern and central portions of the forecast area Wed,
and should be across the down east region by Wed evening. The
front is expected to interact with some moisture associated
with the remains of Barry. The air mass will be very humid to
the south of the front with dew points likely to get close to
70f down east where the pwats will approach 2 inches. Although
the threat of severe storms looks low, some of the showers and
thunderstorms may contain torrential downpours. Drier air will
begin to filter in northern Aroostook County during the
afternoon with dew points dropping into the more comfortable
50s. High pressure builds into eastern Quebec and northern Maine
Wed night with dry and cool weather. Lows will likely drop well
down into the 40s in the normally cooler northwest valleys
(upper 30s can't be ruled out in spots like Estcourt Station and
Big Black river) with upper 40s to low 50s for most northern
areas, and mid to upper 50s down east. Temperatures were lowered
several degrees in the normal cold spots. Thursday looks real
nice as high pressure slowly drifts east of the area with a
return flow to set up by evening. It will be M/sunny north and
p/sunny along the coast, and seasonable with comfortably low
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
a major mid-Summer heat wave is expected to take shape to the
south of our region late this week into the weekend. A strong
sub-tropical ridge will build north and is expected to stretch
from the Central Plains to the middle Atlantic coast. Thu night
will be dry, and with return flow into the region will become
more muggy and not as cool with perhaps a bit of patchy fog
along the coast. Friday will be warmer and much more humid and
with a disturbance to track along the northern periphery of the
ridge it may touch off a few showers and thunderstorms. Warm and
muggy Fri night, and given the pattern have sided with the
warmer raw model temp data that usually does better in such
patterns. The showers and thunderstorms will just add to the
humidity, and Saturday looks mainly dry and will likely be the
warmest day of the week with highs well into the 80s and
potentially into the low 90s for parts of the Bangor region and
interior down east. There is the potential for 3 to 6 hours with
heat index values in the M/u 90s around Bangor and interior
down east, but with it still being 4 days off this is
something to continue to monitor at this point, but will mention
in the severe weather potential statement. Sunday looks to be another very warm and humid day
with a better chance of showers and thunderstorms during the
afternoon and evening as a disturbance and cold front work
across the region. The guidance diverges quite a bit by early
the following week with the GFS bringing a cooler and drier air
mass in the wake of the front with the European model (ecmwf) and Canadian faster
with the initial cold front over the weekend and return flow
into the region early next week. Given the low forecast
confidence have gone with a blended solution which would still
keep some lower chance pops across the area on Monday.
Aviation /12z Tuesday through Saturday/...
near term: VFR next 24 hours at terminals, outside of brief MVFR
restrictions twd end of taf valid time. Light SW winds tonight
will back twd the south during the course of the day but will
remain below 10kts.
Short term: outlook Wed-Sat
Wed night & Thu...VFR.
Thu night: VFR, except local IFR possible in patchy late night
fog at kbhb.
Fri & Sat...mostly VFR with locally MVFR in showers and
thunderstorms Fri afternoon and evening. Local MVFR possible in
any fog patches Fri night, mainly in areas that receive showers
near term: winds and seas will remain well below Small Craft Advisory levels
Short term: the wind and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft
Advisory levels Wed-Sat. A warmer and humid air mass Thu night into
Sat could result in some fog patches, especially late night/early