Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kcar 240719
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
319 am EDT Wed Jul 24 2019
high pressure will build across the region from the west
through Thursday then gradually move southeast over the Gulf
of Maine Friday through Sunday.
Near term /through tonight/...
weak cold frontal boundary crossing northern areas this morning
will continue to slowly sink south across the region today.
Upper flow remains southwest, so expect the front to hang up
toward the downeast coast this afternoon. The may be just enough
convergence and instability along the boundary for an isolated
shower or two this afternoon across portions of downeast. Thus
have included an isolated (15-20% pop) across portions of
downeast. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies early today will give
way to partly sunny skies this afternoon. High this afternoon
will range from the low to mid 70s north and mid 70s to upper
70s downeast. High pressure will build toward the region
tonight. Expect partly cloudy skies as an upper trof remains
across the region. Low temperatures tonight are expected to
range from the upper 40s to low 50s north and mid 50s downeast.
Short term /Thursday through Saturday night/...
msly fair skies and one last cool day xpctd across the forecast area on
Thu, with left ovr cold air Alf with a departing upper trof
resulting in aftn MDT cu and perhaps even an isold shwr or two
msly ovr the northwest/cntrl Highlands with shwrs fighting dry sub-cld
air to reach the ground before evaporating.
Skies will clr Thu ngt then a building upper ridge ovr new eng will
result in a warming trend for the rgn spcly inland from the
immediate coast beginning Fri and contg thru the weekend with
sig abv normal mid Summer-like temps by Sat aftn and warmer
more and more humid conditions spcly by Sat ngt.
Long term /Sunday through Tuesday/...
continued very warm and humid thru the pd, with blended long
range model guidance indicating a first weak S/WV from cntrl
can later sun aftn and eve, possibly resulting in isold
late aftn/Erly eve tstms mainly across wrn areas followed by
2nd S/WV from the great lks for later Mon into Mon ngt with
perhaps more cvrg of at least sct tstms across more of the north and
cntrl ptns of the forecast area later Mon aftn into Mon ngt.
Longer range model guidance is not in good agreement regarding
the tmg of a cold front passage Tue or Tue ngt, resulting in
blended guidance indicating an xtnded tm frame of chc shwrs/tstms
during this time, lowering the confidence of the fcst during
this time, spcly hi temps which was lowered a couple of deg f
from ystdy attm.
Aviation /07z Wednesday through Sunday/...
near term: VFR through tonight. Northwest wind around 10 kts, except
light S wind kbhb with on shore flow expected this afternoon.
Short to long term: Thu-sun...all taf sites VFR with lgt winds.
near term: wind/seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels
Short to long term: no hdlns xpctd with marine fog becoming more
likely by late Sat ngt Onward as warmer, more moist trop air
begins to move north ovr the waters. Went with about 80 percent of
blended ww3/nwps guidance for fcst WV hts thru these ptns of the
fcst. The most energetic spectral WV group pd will initially be
long pd swell of arnd 10 sec on Thu from a departing low in the
open Atlc...being replaced with shorter WV pd groups of arnd 7
sec and 3 sec associated with increased near shore aftn/eve sea