Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
948 am EST Thu Dec 12 2019
high pressure will build south of the area today. A warm front
will lift north of the area Friday. Low pressure will lift north
across Maine Saturday. A cold front will cross the region
Sunday. High pressure will build toward the region later Monday.
Near term /through tonight/...
950 am update... short range guidance suggesting some elevated
low-level lapse rates around 8 c/km lingering across The Crown
of Maine early this morning. This is likely visibly correlated
with cloud streamers off the St. Lawrence River just north of
Quebec city. These have since dissipated as the responsible
shortwave opens distance into the Maritimes.
Dropped the Gale Warning over the waters in favor for a Small Craft Advisory
through the afternoon as winds slowly slacken this afternoon. A
few gusts near 35kt will be possible early. Also adjusted high
temps today as warm front approaches and mostly clear skies,
especially downeast, will allow a little better temperature
recovery after the chilly night.
a few snow showers have accompanied the Arctic cold front
overnight. Drier air will be pushing into the area today as high
pressure builds to our southwest. However, some isolated
flurries are possible in the band of converging air downeast
from the laurentian mountains today, but any snow showers be
light and spotty. Otherwise, today will be blustery and cold as
the high pushes Arctic air across the region. The air will
become more tranquil this afternoon with the high building
nearby to the south. The return flow behind the high will lift a
warm front north of the region tonight, ahead of a low in the
western Great Lakes. This will bring increasing clouds across
mainly western and northern areas from late today into tonight.
Some patchy warm advection light snow is possible over far
northwestern areas tonight. Otherwise, the north will become
overcast with downeast becoming mostly cloudy as a south to
southeasterly breeze increases behind the high.
Short term /Friday through Saturday/...
high pressure will exit through the Canadian Maritimes on
Friday. A warm front will develop across northern areas early
Friday and then move north of the region later Friday. A few
snow showers will develop in the vicinity of the warm front as
it lifts to the north of the region, mainly across northern
areas early Friday. Moisture continues to increase across the
region later Friday and Friday night as low pressure slowly
begins to lift north toward the region from the mid-Atlantic
region. Southerly winds will result in rising temperatures
Friday night. Precipitation will begin in the form of snow
across northern areas Friday night with snow or rain mixed
downeast, with precipitation persisting into Saturday morning.
There could be some minor snow accumulation across northern
areas by early Saturday morning. Continued warm advection will
change any mixed precipitation to all rain early Saturday. The
potential is there for locally heavy rainfall on Saturday, as a
low level jet transports abundant moisture westward across the
region. Temperatures will be above normal through the period.
Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
the low will continue to lift north of the region Saturday night
with rain persisting along with above normal nighttime
temperatures Saturday night. The low will lift across the Gulf
of Saint Lawrence and toward Labrador late Sunday, with a cold
front crossing the region later Sunday. Rain on Sunday will
taper to snow showers later Sunday into Sunday evening as the
cold front crosses the region. Much colder air will follow for
Sunday night and Monday on gusty northwest winds. Monday will be
blustery and cold with a few northern flurries. Another low
will approach the area Tuesday, although uncertainty still
exists with regard to the exact track of the low. This system
could bring some snow to the area on Tuesday. The low will move
east of the region Tuesday night and Wednesday with mainly dry
but cold weather expected.
Aviation /15z Thursday through Monday/...
today: VFR. Gusty west wind this morning, diminishing wind this
Tonight: VFR, possibly lowering to MVFR over the far north.
Light south wind.
Short term: Fri - Fri night...MVFR in lowering ceilings and
light snow showers.
Sat thru sun...widespread IFR conditions expected in rain and
gusty south to southeast winds Sat and Sat night, with gusty
northwest winds expected on Sunday.
Mon...VFR and gusty northwest winds.
a Gale Warning for the offshore waters and Small Craft Advisory for the
intracoastal waters will continue through mid morning. Winds
will diminish this afternoon into this evening as high pressure
builds nearby to the south.
Short term: winds will begin to increase to Small Craft Advisory levels Friday
night and Saturday, and then possibly to gale force levels later
in the weekend. Visibility will decrease to 1 to 3 nm in rain
later Saturday and into Sunday.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for