Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
458 am EDT sun Sep 22 2019
high pressure will move south of the region today and tonight.
Low pressure will approach Monday and slowly cross northern
Maine through Wednesday morning. High pressure will build over
the area Wednesday evening. A cold front will approach on
Near term /through tonight/...
1024mb sfc high centered ovr West Virginia with ridge axis up
to the northeast and thru The Heart of the County Warning Area. Winds are
currently calm at most locations and with only thin cirrus ovr
most of the area, temps are dipping into the 40s acrs the north.
Deeper vlys of Northwest Aroostook are currently as low as the
u30s and believe these areas hv reached their lowest point for
the mrng. Patchy fog has been hit or miss acrs the region this
mrng but hv not rmvd potential as microphysics satellite loop is
showing dvlpmnt in the past hr.
Mostly sunny skies can be expected this mrng bfr mid-high clods
appch FM the west in advance of WV ejecting FM the nrn plains.
H9 temps soar to nr +20c ovr cntrl sections of the area this
aftn and hv gone with lwr 80s ovr a good portion of the region
for highs this aftn. Onshore flow wl keep coast and Outer Island
in the u60s/nr 70 for highs tda but warm day expected rmndr of
the area, approx 15 degrees above normal for this last day of
Frontal bndry located FM srn Canada into the nrn plains wl
slowly appch the state tonight. Sfc low mvs northeast out of
the plains along the bndry and effectively stalls front just
north of the international border thru the end of the pd.
Showers may mv into the St. John Vly this evng and generally
creep south through the ovrngt pd. Given the predicted cld cvr
hv gone with mins in the l/M 60s for tonight to the north of
Bangor, which may rival record high mins for sept 23rd.
Short term /Monday through Tuesday night/...
rain showers will be focused in the north through Monday morning
before low pressure begins to ride NE along the trough across
Quebec. This will bring chance of showers further south through
the afternoon hours into downeast. Southern stream moisture will
add to rain chances with pwats rising above 1.5 inches. Along
the coast through the evening and overnight, the low begins to
become more vertically stacked and cut off. Portions of downeast
will be the warm spot for the day as SW flow intensifies
between exiting high pressure and approaching trough. As a
result, some elevated instability could bring an isolated
thunderstorm. Much lift and forcing will be missing, and dont
expect more than a few rumbles mid-afternoon.
Trough continues to cross overnight taking on a neutral tilt.
This will trend negative with divergence aloft along the ME/New
Brunswick border Tuesday as sfc low crosses over central Maine.
Expect dry air to infiltrate on southern side of the low which
would hamper shower chances there during morn/aftn. However,
additional forcing ahead and to north of the lows track can
take advantage of the moist environment, sharper forcing,
increased instability, and 40kts of 0-6km shear. Given timing
and location differences, have a wider area of isolated thunder
chances for Tuesday afternoon, mostly downeast to just south of
a pqi/Clayton Lake line. These thundershowers could be deeper
and bring more moderate or heavy rain at times, but havent
added any enhanced wording at this time. Overnight, the low will
continue to travel NE, with some lingering wrap around showers
possible for northern half of the County Warning Area.
Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
some moisture still lingering across the north Wednesday as low
is slow to exit fully into the Canadian Maritimes. High pressure
will quickly nose in Wednesday night with a brief dry break
before next chance of showers Thursday. A cold front will
approach from west with bulk of moisture rounding the top of a
surface high pressure across the Ohio Valley. Guidance agreeing
that this should track across the region quickly as a large
upper level jet aligns along the northern tier of states and
US/can border. Aforementioned high will continue towards East
Coast with forecast area entering a more northwest dry flow regime towards end of
week and early weekend. Temperatures during this time will
return towards normal with highs in the 60s and overnight lows
in the mid to upper 40s across the north, and around 50
Aviation /08z Sunday through Thursday/...
near term: VFR next 24 hours. May see a brief period of IFR
vsbys at pqi and hul between 08z-11z this morning, along with
bcfg at bgr. Winds will become gusty from the south in the
Monday through tuesday: MVFR likely with showers approaching Monday
north to south through the day. Conditions continue Monday
night. Conditions improve to VFR at bgr and bhb Tuesday. Winds
SW 5-10kts, becoming light Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Tuesday night: VFR at bgr and bhb with MVFR still possible in showers
across the northern sites fve, car, pqi and hul,
Wednesday and Wednesday night: conditions across north improving
to VFR, but ceilings will be slow to increase. Winds northwest
Thursday: MVFR in the north with showers late morning into
afternoon. Winds shifting to SW.
near term: winds will likely remain just below 25kts tonight
with stable inversion present over the waters. Seas will rise to
near 5ft tonight in southeasterly swell but confidence is not
high enough to issue Small Craft Advisory. Visibilities will be reduced in patchy
fog over the waters tonight.
Short term: Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas may be needed Monday through
Tuesday as waves could build to around 5 or 6 feet. Winds look
to remain below 25kts given stable layer at surface. Waves go
down, but remain 3 to 4 ft Wednesday and Thursday.