Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kcae 212356
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
756 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019
high pressure at the surface and aloft will dominate through
Monday. A weak cold front with little moisture will move through
the area Monday night. High pressure and even warmer
temperatures expected for the remainder of the week.
Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/...
high pressure both aloft and at the surface continues to
dominate. The airmass is relatively dry with pwat values below
an inch. Clear skies expected this evening. Excellent
radiational cooling conditions expected again tonight. Overnight
low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Went a little
below guidance given high bias the past couple of nights.
Short term /6 am Sunday morning through Tuesday night/...
high pressure aloft and at the surface will help keep dry
condition and Monday. Monday night will see a weak front push
towards the cwa, with the front then moving through on Tuesday.
Moisture remains limited with this frontal passage, so no
rainfall anticipated. High pressure then rebuilds back into the
area beginning Tuesday night behind the front.
With plenty of sunshine each day, temperatures will climb back
to around 90 degrees through Monday. Tuesday may actually be
warmer with drier air behind the front.
Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
ridging continues through the end of the week, with temperatures
expected to climb well above normal. Readings in the lower to
mid 90s during the day, with overnight lows in the upper 60s to
Aviation /00z Sunday through Thursday/...
VFR conditions expected through the 24-hour taf period. However,
brief, patchy fog possible early Sunday morning at ags/ogb.
Little overall change in the airmass over the past 24 hours with
high pressure in control aloft and at the surface. Relativley
dry atmosphere with pwats remaining below an inch.
Light and variable winds will become calm overnight. Cannot
rule out brief patchy fog at fog prone ags and ogb early Sunday.
Model guidance has been overdoing the fog threat the past
couple of days, so confidence is low and therefore did not
include mention at this time.
Extended aviation outlook...expect mainly VFR conditions though
the outlook period, but there may be IFR fog during the early