Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kcae 211812
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
112 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2019
high pressure over the region will move offshore tonight.
The next chance of rain will be late Friday through Saturday
night as low pressure develops in the deep south and lifts
northward. Its associated cold front will cross the area Saturday
night. Dry weather and near normal temperatures are favored for
Sunday and into early next week.
Near term /through tonight/...
dry weather will continue through tonight.
An upper level ridge over the region will flatten tonight.
Surface high pressure over the area will move offshore this
evening. A developing southerly wind flow will bring increasing
moisture ahead of the next approaching weather system. Sunny
skies this afternoon will give way to increasing high level
clouds overnight. Temperatures this afternoon will peak in the
mid to upper 60s with lows tonight in the 40s.
Short term /Friday through Saturday night/...
a closed low moving through the Central Plains will result in
increasing southwesterly flow over the area on Friday. This will
cause somewhat breezy winds and slightly above normal temperatures,
with highs will be in the mid 60s to low 70s. As this weather system
progresses eastward on Friday night, showers could start moving into
the northern midlands by morning, but the bulk of the rain will
remain north and west of the area. The low will lift north on
Saturday, and its attendant cold front will swing through the region
during the afternoon and evening. Good southerly flow will proceed
the front, bringing sufficient Gulf moisture into the area for some
locations to see decent rainfall amounts. However, since this is a
fairly fast moving system, totals across the forecast area will
likely be limited to less than 1 inch.
Long term /Sunday through Thursday/...
the front should move east of the area by Sunday, and drier
conditions will follow going into Tuesday. A shortwave trough may
move over the forecast area late Sunday or Monday, though a dry
airmass will not favor measurable precipitation. The next chance for
rain showers will be on Wednesday as a weak front moves through.
Thursday should then be dry with the region under weak high
pressure. It will be somewhat cool for Sunday and Monday following
the first cold front. Highs will only be in the mid 50s to low 60s.
It will then warm to near normal by Wednesday, but cool some for
Thursday following the second front.
Aviation /18z Thursday through Tuesday/...
high confidence in VFR conditions.
High pressure over the region will move offshore tonight.
Moisture will gradually deepen through the period. High level
clouds tonight with VFR conditions prevailing. Fog chances late
tonight will be limited by increasing clouds and mixing due to
the development of a low level jet. Southwest winds are
expected to increase to 8-10 kts by midday Friday.
Extended aviation outlook...cig/vsby restrictions are possible
Friday night through Saturday night as a cold front crosses the
area bringing rain showers.