Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kcae 220720
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
320 am EDT sun Sep 22 2019
Synopsis...high pressure at the surface and aloft will dominate
through Monday. A weak cold front with little moisture will
move through the area Monday night and Tuesday morning. General
high pressure and even warmer conditions are expected for the
remainder of the week.
Near term /through tonight/...
ridging will remain over the region. It should remain dry with
light wind. The temperature guidance was close with highs near
90 and lows in the lower and middle 60s.
Short term /Monday through Tuesday night/...
surface ridging extending along the Gulf Coast will limit
moisture ahead of an approaching cold front Monday. The models
depict the weak front moving through the area Monday night and
Tuesday morning. Upper ridging also is forecast to continue. The
pattern supports dry conditions. The NAM, GFS, and European model (ecmwf) MOS
have pops less than 10 percent. The temperature guidance has
been consistent with lows mainly in the middle and upper 60s and
highs in the lower 90s.
Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
the GFS and European model (ecmwf) indicate general ridging in the region but
some weak surface troughing at times during the period. Upper
ridging is forecast to remain dominate. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) MOS
support above normal temperatures and pops 20 percent or less.
Aviation /07z Sunday through Thursday/...
MVFR to IFR restrictions in early morning fog at ags/ogb.
High pressure and relatively dry air will remain in control of
the region through the taf period. Main concern remains the
potential for early morning fog at ags/ogb and with some patchy
fog already seen at ags will include in tafs through the sunrise
hours. Fog which develops will erode quickly after sunrise with
the remainder of the period VFR. Wind through the period will
be variable less than 5 knots.
Extended aviation outlook...MVFR to IFR fog possible during the
late night/early morning hours.