Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kcae 162345
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
745 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019
drier air will remain over the area tonight as Hurricane
Humberto moves eastward further into the Atlantic Ocean. Midweek,
a front will push southward from the mid-Atlantic into the
forecast area behind the departing offshore cyclone. A dry and
cooler airmass will build into the region late week behind the
front. Temperatures will warm back up for the weekend as upper
level ridging builds over the area.
Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/...
light and variable winds developing. With the drier air in
place skies will remain clear resulting in excellent radiational
cooling conditions with limited stratus to the east. Local
radiation scheme mid 60s so lowered temps slightly from MOS and
Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through Thursday/...
Tuesday will be the last very warm day with highs in the mid 90s. A
back door cold front drops into the midlands and csra Tuesday night
through Wednesday morning with isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures will lower 10 to 15 degrees behind the front for
Wednesday through Thursday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s
and lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
high pressure aloft remains over the southeast U.S. Through this
week with a gradual warming trend. An upper trough is forecast to
flatten the upper ridge. The impacts of an associated cold front may
be just beyond the forecast period.
Aviation /00z Tuesday through Saturday/...
high confidence in VFR conditions throughout the 24-hr taf
Ridging will continue to promote dry conditions at the terminals
through Tuesday. Clear skies and light winds will result in
excellent radiational cooling conditions tonight. BUFKIT
soundings appear too dry at the lower levels for any fog or
Extended aviation outlook...no significant impacts to aviation
expected through Friday.