Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kcae 200032
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
732 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2019
an upper level trough will lift away from the midlands tonight
and bring clearing in its wake late tonight. High pressure and
dry air will return tonight through Thursday night. The next
chance of rain will be Friday through Saturday as low pressure
develops in the southeast. Dry weather and near normal
temperatures are favored for Sunday into early next week.
Near term /through Wednesday/...
upper trough will continue moving off to our east, while surface
high pressure center to our west shifts eastward. Some drier
air and increase in wind expected tonight for much of the
forecast area (fa). However, across the northern and eastern fa,
higher dewpoints and lighter winds may promote some fog.
Short term /Wednesday night through Thursday night/...
dry northwesterly flow will be over the area on Wednesday as high
pressure builds in from the west. This pattern supports a warming
trend and highs will be in the low to mid 60s. However, mostly clear
skies will lead to cool conditions on Wednesday night with lows in
the mid 30s to low 40s. It will remain dry on Thursday as the ridge
axis crosses the region, and temperatures should be a few
degrees warmer. Moisture and cloud cover will increase on
Thursday night as flow becomes southwesterly in advance of the
next weather system. This will keep temperatures in the mid 40s.
Long term /Friday through Tuesday/...
an upper level trough moves out of the central US and into the
mid-Atlantic during the long term. Surface low pressure will
lift out of the south from Friday through Saturday, bringing a
cold front through the forecast area. Current forecast shows a
warm front developing north of the area on Friday, so mainly
expect showers across the northern midlands and Pee Dee region.
Models have come into decent agreement that the cold front and
the bulk of the moisture will push through on Saturday
afternoon. Storm total rainfall of one half to one inch will be
possible with good southerly flow bringing Gulf moisture into
the region. The front should move east of the area by Sunday,
and drier conditions will follow going into the beginning of
Aviation /00z Wednesday through Sunday/...
lingering stratus has finally cleared the area with VFR
conditions at all terminals this evening. The upper trough axis
has shifted east of the region and high pressure will build in
at the surface. Some mid level clouds will traverse the area
through 05z or so but then should clear later tonight. Some
dense fog already developing along the NC/SC border where
dewpoint depressions are near zero. Models suggest fog/stratus
will develop in that Pee Dee region into the northern coastal
plain and try to expand southwestward during the 06z-12z time
frame but keep it just northeast of the terminals.
Due to lack of confidence in restrictions occurring at
cae/cub/ogb decided to include some MVFR vsby restrictions in a
tempo group 09z-12z. Kept all mention of restrictions out of
ags/dnl where confidence is higher in VFR conditions. Winds will
be light and variable to calm overnight but there is some
boundary layer wind around 15 knots. Winds will pick up again by
14z Wednesday from the north around 5 to 8 knots.
Extended aviation outlook...no significant impacts to aviation
expected through Thursday night. Cig/vsby restrictions are
possible Friday through Sunday as a frontal boundary affects