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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo New York
725 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

splendid weather for viewing the peak of the fall foliage
continues as high pressure passing to our east will provide US
with US with fair dry weather through Monday. The pleasant
weather will be accompanied by day to day warming with
temperatures climbing as high as the lower 70s across the
western counties for Monday. A dramatic change back to more
seasonable Fall weather will then take place for the remainder
of the week.


Near term /through Sunday/...
high clouds will continue to stream over the region in a
scattered fashion overnight as a system traverses to our
southeast. There is no realistic chance for precipitation with
these clouds, but they will help to keep temperatures up a few
degrees as compared to last night.

Skies will start off mainly sunny on Sunday, but mid to high clouds
will begin to increase in the afternoon over western New York as shortwave
trough swings across the upper Great Lakes. Will also see the clouds
over the east slowly depart through the morning. Increasing h9-850 mb
temps will result in high temps reaching the lower to middle 60s,
with readings around 60f east of Lake Ontario.


Short term /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
Sunday night, our region will remain under the influence of the
surface high extending from James Bay south and east across New York
state. Meanwhile, our next weather maker will be in the process of
exiting the Rocky Mountains and beginning to track east across the
upper Midwest. Otherwise, with the surface high influencing our
weather expect generally clear skies and light wind flow overnight.
This will also allow for good radiational cooling to take place with
some River Valley fog formation. Look for lows in the lower 40s
inland away from the lakes with mid to upper 40s along the lake

Low pressure will then track out of the upper Midwest and arrive
across Lake Superior by late in the day on Monday. As this feature
tracks into the upper Great Lakes warm advection processes and
southerly flow will pick up across the forecast area. This will aid
in sending our temperatures up well above normal with upper 60s to
the lower 70s across the lake plains. Overall, it should be a fine
fall day across the area with plentiful sunshine expected for a good
portion of the day. It will make for a perfect day to get out and go
see the fall foliage, especially to go see Letchworth State Park
which is near or at peak.

The surface low over Lake Superior will slowly drift northward into
southeast Ontario Canada and mature Monday night. As it does so, it
will slowly pivot its trailing front into and then slowly east
across New York state. As the front crosses the forecast area it
will bring an area of widespread rainfall to the area for a good
portion of the day Tuesday. In regards to rainfall amounts, most
locations should expect to see rainfall totals come in just under an
inch. Behind the front, widespread rainfall will taper off along
with winds veering around to southwest. Also, over the course of the
day h850t will cool and are forecast to drop per European model (ecmwf)/GFS/NAM from
+12c to ~+2/3c by Tuesday evening.

The steadier precipitation should all be in the process of winding
down for our forecast area by early Tuesday night. Behind the front,
the atmospheric column will continue to cool. This in combination
with the broad mid level trough wrapping additional moisture in
across the lower lakes will support lake effect showers northeast of
both lakes. However, it will only be a brief window for lake driven
rain showers given the fact that synoptic moisture gets quickly
stripped away and equilibrium levels drop by Wednesday. With that
said, this event or setup will be somewhat similar to last
Wednesday. In that event some lightning and graupel was observed
within the stronger rain showers. Current BUFKIT forecast profiles
do show lake induced equilibrium levels climbing to near 21k for
this next event. Additionally, the depth from the surface to -10c
will be nearing 10k, which is another key ingredient. So it's not
out of the realm of possibility that some of the stronger showers
will again be able to produce lightning and graupel. Stay tuned!

Behind the front it will be markedly cooler with highs by Wednesday
expected to only top out in the 50s.


Long term /Wednesday night through Saturday/...
the pressure gradient between low pressure across Hudson Bay and
high pressure across the mid-Atlantic states will result in a
general southwesterly flow across the region Wednesday night and
Thursday. Initially it will be cool enough aloft to support some
lake effect rain showers Wednesday night, then these may be followed
by more showers with a subtle shortwave embedded in the flow aloft
on Thursday. This said, showers will be scattered in nature and the
majority of the time will be cool and dry.

After this, 12z model guidance continues to differ with the GFS/Gem
slowly moving a shortwave across the region while the European model (ecmwf) has a
cut-off low developing across the southern states. If the former
verifies, there will be a period of rain Friday into Saturday as low
pressure develops in response to the shortwave. It also would result
in cooler conditions on Saturday when there would be a northwesterly
flow behind the system. The European model (ecmwf) solution would lead to a mainly
dry and slightly warmer pattern. Given the resulting forecast
uncertainty, have kept pops in the chance range until model guidance
comes to a better consensus. Temperatures will not stray too far
from normal for late October with daytime highs mainly in the 50s.


Aviation /00z Sunday through Thursday/...
looking at ideal flying weather through Sunday with VFR conditions
and light winds. Think scattered high clouds may limit fog
coverage in the southern tier, so have no mention at jhw

Tuesday...MVFR with areas of rain and fog.
Wednesday...MVFR to VFR with scattered lake effect rain showers
northeast of lakes Erie and Ontario.


as surface high moves across New England through Sunday...a weak
pressure gradient will remain in place across the lower Great Lakes.
This will maintain light winds and negligible waves through the
remainder of the weekend.

East to southeast winds will begin to freshen on Monday...well ahead
of a slow moving cold front that will be crossing the mid-western


Buf watches/warnings/advisories...
New York...none.



near term...Fries/jla

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