Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbtv 161726
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
126 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019
high pressure will build into the region and control our weather
all week with dry weather expected and partly to mostly sunny
skies. Afternoon high temperatures today will be a few degrees
below normal with readings in the mid to upper 60s today and
tomorrow but will gradually warm each day to above normal
temperatures by Friday with highs in the mid to upper 70s. It's
possible we could see 80 degree temperatures across the
Champlain and St. Lawrence valleys by next weekend but most
locations should remain in the 70s.
Near term /through Tuesday/...
as of 911 am EDT Monday...no big changes to the forecast this
morning but did have to tweak the sky forecast to account for
some lingering stratocumulus hanging around northern Vermont.
This shouldn't impact the high temperature forecast this
afternoon as satellite imagery shows this cloud cover quickly
dissipating this morning. Mostly sunny to clear skies are
expected this afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Previous discussion...a cool low-level northerly flow is
expected through Tuesday with relatively cool air aloft. 925 mb
temps running about 10c both afternoons but at 850mb a bit
cooler 3-6c leading to steep low level lapse rates. That along
with orographic lift will continue causing some stratocumulus
clouds especially east of The Greens in the nek during the
heating of the day. At night mostly clear skies has will lead to
some patchy dense fog in the usual valley and sheltered
locations. High temperatures will be a couple degrees cooler
than average today and Tue with highs climbing into the mid to
upper 60s. Tonight will be on the cool side with lows in the
upper 30s to upper 40s.
Short term /Tuesday night through Wednesday/...
as of 308 am EDT Monday...surface high pressure centered north
of the international border will lead to another quiet and nice
fall day with mostly clear skies and light winds. Tuesday night
will see overnight lows in the 40s in most locations with the
nek and parts of the dacks dropping into the 30s with the
potential for some patchy frost as well. Wednesday can expect
highs in the upper 60s across the region.
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
as of 308 am EDT Monday...high pressure will remain over the
northeast US for most of the long term period, continuing the long
stretch of quiet and comfortable weather. As the axis of the upper
ridge shifts east over the second half of the week, northerly flow
will weaken before shifting southwest as the surface high moves
to the southeast of the County Warning Area. With that, we will see a steady
warming trend each day with highs in the upper 60s Thu,
climbing to the lower 80s by the end of the weekend. Overnight
lows in the lower 60s and upper 50s through the period.
Aviation /18z Monday through Saturday/...
through 18z Tuesday...gusty northwest winds ranging from 12 to
18 knots will continue through the afternoon hours today and
will likely redevelop Tuesday around 16z at most terminals. VFR
conditions will continue this afternoon and evening with some
fair weather cumulus dissipating after sunset. With good
radiational cooling tonight, patchy dense fog once again looks
likely. Kmpv, kmss and kslk look to have the best probabilities
of IFR to LIFR fog but kmpv could get in on some fog given light
drainage flow overnight. Have just included a vcfg for kbtv for
the time being but 1-2 miles at the aforementioned taf sites.
Any fog that develops should lift by 13z with sky clear conditions
prevailing on Tuesday.
Tuesday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Wednesday: VFR. No sig weather.
Wednesday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Thursday: VFR. No sig weather.
Thursday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Friday: VFR. No sig weather.
Friday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Saturday: VFR. No sig weather.