Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbtv 191714
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
114 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019
after lingering morning clouds, high pressure will build into
the region today through Monday with fair and dry weather
expected. The next chance of steadier rainfall arrives by next
Tuesday into Wednesday with the arrival of a cold front.
Near term /through Sunday/...
as of 1004 am EDT Saturday...a little bit of moisture is trapped
near the higher terrain in northern New York and eastern Vermont
which has allowed for some cloud cover to continue through the
morning hours. With drier air advecting into the region and the
surface inversion mixing out, skies should trend mostly clear by
mid-afternoon. Otherwise, it'll be a docile day across the north
country with highs a few degrees below normal.
generally quiet weather is expected over the next 42 hours.
Lingering low to mid level clouds across the northern mountains
should scatter out today as elongated surface ridge axis moves
east from the Great Lakes and low to mid level flow trends
light. High temperatures will remain on the cool side - mainly
from the upper 40s to lower 50s, perhaps a few degrees milder in
the far southern valleys.
The surface high then bridges across the area tonight with mainly
clear skies expected. Decent radiational cooling should allow
temperatures to fall quickly after sunset with areas of patchy fog
and frost forming overnight given moist ground conditions from
recent heavy rainfall. A frost advisory has been issued for the
Champlain Valley from midnight to 900 am Sunday as the frost/freeze
program remains active for this area. Lows to range from the mid 20s
to lower 30s with customary variability.
Fair weather continues for Sunday with the surface high gradually
sliding east. Some mid and high level moisture will likely advect
across the area by the afternoon hours as the remnants of former ts
Nestor exits off the Delmarva, but no precipitation is expected.
High temperatures moderate slightly with highs ranging through the
50s. Winds remain light.
Short term /Sunday night through Monday/...
as of 415 am EDT Saturday...a narrow surface ridge and a
stronger mid-level ridge will be positioned across the north
country on Sunday night as the remnants of now tropical storm
Nestor shifts east. Clearing skies are expected Sunday night.
With the ridging in place, mostly clear skies, and light winds,
one would think it would be a great radiational cooling night.
However, MOS data does not seem to be enthused about radiational
cooling. Perhaps some left over mid-level moisture lingers in
the region. I have not strayed too far from model output, but
have run a blend of colder guidance. This gives lows in the mid
30s to roughly 40. Monday will be a pleasant day with highs near
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
as of 415 am EDT Saturday...still looking at a dry and warmer
start to Tuesday as deep layer ridging begins to shift east
ahead of an upstream negatively tilted trough propagates into
the Great Lakes. Strong southerly flow aloft will efficiently
transport moisture over the area as a strengthening vort Max
advects into the north country. This will cross in tandem with a
strong cold front pushing east ahead of a low in the Hudson
Bay. Surface low pressure attempts to develop of the coast, but
the complex interaction with the remnants of Nestor and lack of
a favorable jet configuration means that this feature should
remain relatively weak and the cold front will remain the
dominant feature. This will scuttle eastwards by Wednesday
morning, but lingering showers will be possible as moisture
streams over Lake Ontario into northern New York and Vermont
from southwest flow. This will be the case for the next several
days until the pattern should adjust from an approaching
shortwave trough towards Saturday. Temperatures will be near to
slightly above seasonal norms.
Aviation /17z Saturday through Thursday/...
through 18z Sunday...VFR conditions prevail this afternoon with
the exception of kslk where a 2500 ft deck has been present
through the morning hours. This MVFR deck should scour our over
the next few hours with VFR conditions residing across the north
country through much of the forecast period. Fog probabilities
are diminishing as we should be picking up 10-15 knots of wind
just off the surface tonight and high clouds begin to move into
the region. However, fog still look likely at kmpv and eastern
Vermont as the winds won't make it in until 12z-14z. VFR
conditions will once again persist on Sunday with winds shifting
to the southeast after sunrise.
Sunday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Monday: VFR. No sig weather.
Monday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Tuesday: mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance ra, chance
Tuesday night: mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite rain.
Wednesday: mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance shra,
Wednesday night: VFR. Slight chance rain showers.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance rain showers.
Vermont...frost advisory from midnight tonight to 9 am EDT Sunday for
New York...frost advisory from midnight tonight to 9 am EDT Sunday for