Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbtv 161912
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
312 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019
the quietest period of weather seen in quite some time is underway
across the north country with high pressure situating across the
region. Afternoon temperatures today were a few degrees warmer than
expected with the plentiful late Summer sun and we should see
temperatures rise a couple degrees with each passing day. High
temperatures in the 80s look likely for the Champlain and St.
Lawrence valleys by Saturday. With deep layer ridging just getting
stronger as we head into midweek, there don't appear to be any
chances for rainfall with mostly clear to clear skies prevailing
through the weekend.
Near term /through Tuesday night/...
as of 312 PM EDT Monday...a little bit of fair weather cumulus
developed this afternoon in response to plentiful heating with clear
skies being observed across much of the area this morning. In
addition to the clouds, winds have also been on the increase today
with 15-20 knots of wind at the top of the mixed layer occasionally
making it down to the surface. These occasional gusts should taper
off after peak heating as the boundary layer begins to decouple and
the surface layer stabilizes. This should also yield decreasing
cloud cover heading into the evening hours which will allow for
temperatures to fall quickly tonight with good radiational cooling
expected. Crossover temperatures for the most part are in the lower
40s and with the good radiational cooling expected tonight,
temperatures will drop into the upper 30s to the mid 40s. This
should allow for patchy dense fog to develop once again with the
main focus on the climatological favorite river valleys across the
Any fog that does develop will burn off by 9 am with clear skies
expected throughout the day on Tuesday. Northwesterly flow aloft
will continue to usher in drier air which should help keep the fair
weather cumulus at Bay that we are currently observing. The same 15-
20 knots of wind will be seen at the top of the mixed layer again on
Tuesday which will likely allow for gusty winds to develop once
again during the afternoon hours. Afternoon highs will be similar to
those seen today with readings in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Overnight lows, however, will likely be a few degrees cooler with
temperatures falling quicker with the drier air in place. Overnight
lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s could lead to patchy frost across the
northern Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom with patchy dense fog
Short term /Wednesday through Wednesday night/...
as of 312 PM EDT Monday...northerly flow aloft prevails over the
region Wednesday and Wednesday night with high pressure at the
surface. Expecting plenty of sunshine and no precipitation with
highs in the 60s to around 70 and light winds. Radiational cooling
Wednesday night will allow for lows getting down into the 40s with
mid to upper 30s over parts of the northern Adirondacks and
Northeast Kingdom of Vermont.
Long term /Thursday through Monday/...
as of 312 PM EDT Monday...much of the extended time period will see
some very nice weather. High pressure...both at the surface and
aloft...remain over the area during the Thursday through Sunday time
period. As a result looking at plenty of sunshine...relatively light
winds...and a noticeable warming trend in response to warming 925
millibar temperatures. Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 60s to
the mid 70s but expect each day moving forward to warm 2 to 4
degrees. As a result we will see mid 70s to around 80 on Saturday
and upper 70s to lower 80s on Sunday. A transition will be taking
place on Sunday as southwest flow aloft becomes established. This is
contributing to the above normal temperatures...but is also a signal
that an upper level trough exists upstream. This upper level trough
moves into the region Sunday night and Monday...which will result in
increasing chances for showers. Highs will be back into the upper
60s to mid 70s on Monday due to clouds and moisture over the area.
Aviation /19z Monday through Saturday/...
through 18z Tuesday...gusty northwest winds ranging from 12 to
18 knots will continue through the afternoon hours today and
will likely redevelop Tuesday around 16z at most terminals. VFR
conditions will continue this afternoon and evening with some
fair weather cumulus dissipating after sunset. With good
radiational cooling tonight, patchy dense fog once again looks
likely. Kmpv, kmss and kslk look to have the best probabilities
of IFR to LIFR fog but kmpv could get in on some fog given light
drainage flow overnight. Have just included a vcfg for kbtv for
the time being but 1-2 miles at the aforementioned taf sites.
Any fog that develops should lift by 13z with sky clear conditions
prevailing on Tuesday.
Tuesday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Wednesday: VFR. No sig weather.
Wednesday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Thursday: VFR. No sig weather.
Thursday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Friday: VFR. No sig weather.
Friday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Saturday: VFR. No sig weather.