Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbtv 181121
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
721 am EDT Wed Sep 18 2019
quiet weather continues on for the rest of the week as high pressure
dominates over the north country through to the weekend. The only
weather of of note is some patchy frost across portions of the
northern Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom this morning and again
tonight as temperatures in these locations drop into the lower 30s.
High temperatures look to warm each day with this weekend seeing a
return to the 80s. The next significant chance for rainfall looks to
be early next week.
Near term /through Thursday/...
as of 348 am EDT Wednesday...patchy fog remains in a few
locations but should burn off in the next hour or so. Beyond
that, the great stretch of weather continues as a ridge of high
pressure continues to dominate across most of the northeastern
US. Continued drying in the mid levels will lead to a decrease
in clouds from yesterday with mostly clear skies and highs in
the upper 60s.
Surface high shifts over the eastern quarter of the cwa, leading to
cooler night with fog again expected in the valleys along with parts
of the dacks and nek again seeing frost/freeze conditions tonight.
With the current headlines out, have opted to hold off on an
advisory for tonight and will let the day shift further evaluate.
Look for overnight lows in the 40s with higher elevations in the 30s
and upper 20s.
Thursday will flow slowly shift to the southwest with continued
minimal cloud cover and high temperatures in the upper 60s and low
Short term /Thursday night through Friday/...
as of 348 am EDT Wednesday...no change in the forecast for the end of
the work week from what we've previously been advertising with
surface high pressure persisting over the northeast and a ridge
aloft just west of the County Warning Area. Should see fairly sunny/clear skies with
some passing cirrus, along with an increasing south/southwesterly
return flow which will allow temps to warm slightly from the
previous days. Look for lows in the 40s/50s Thursday night, and
highs Friday in the mid/upper 70s.
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
as of 348 am EDT Wednesday...heading into the weekend, the
aforementioned upper ridge centers over the northeast Saturday,
while high pressure strengthens over the southeast. This combination
will continue the warming trend from the previous days with a return
of Summer-like temperatures as highs push into the upper 70s to low
80s for both Saturday and Sunday. On Sunday, we should see some
gusty winds across the region as the pressure gradient increases
between departing high pressure and an approaching trough. Guidance
is coming into better agreement with the timing and strength of this
trough, with the European model (ecmwf) and CMC slightly deeper/stronger than the
GFS, along with a deeper and more prolonged moisture axis Sunday
night into Monday. Currently, the best chance chance for rain looks
to be across northern New York Sunday night, then uncertainty
increases Monday. European model (ecmwf) solution would offer a washout Monday, while
the GFS could be more showery and/or dry. I'll be offering a middle
of the Road forecast for now with high chances, but the trend is
certainly looking wetter. Behind this system though, high pressure
looks to make a brief return for Tuesday night and Wednesday with a
return of more fall-like temperatures.
Aviation /11z Wednesday through Sunday/...
through 12z Thursday...currently VFR at most stations with
light variable winds across the region. LIFR fog at kslk and
kmpv should last for the first hour of the taf period, but not
much longer beyond that. Beyond 13z, VFR conditions at all
terminals expected once fog evaporates to clear skies and light
north to northeast winds at 5 to 10 knots. IFR/LIFR is possible
again tonight for kslk, kmpv and to a lesser degree, kmss and
Thursday: VFR. Patchy br.
Thursday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Friday: VFR. No sig weather.
Friday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Saturday: mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. No sig weather.
Saturday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Sunday: VFR. No sig weather.