Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbtv 191104
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
704 am EDT Thu Sep 19 2019
strong high pressure will dominate the north country's weather
through Sunday with fair and dry conditions expected. Mild to warm
afternoon highs and seasonably cool overnight lows will be the rule
along with generally light winds. The next chance for precipitation
arrives Sunday night into Monday with the approach of a cold front.
Near term /through Friday/...
as of 343 am EDT Thursday...early fall days across the north country
really don't get better than this with surface high pressure
providing dry conditions, seasonal temperatures, low humidity and
light winds. After a chilly start this morning along with areas of
dense River Valley fog, we should see a nice rebound in temperatures
under mainly clear skies with afternoon highs right around normal in
the upper 60s to low 70s. Towards midnight, some mid/high clouds
rounding the crest of an upper ridge to our west will begin to work
into the region which will help to keep temps much milder tonight
compared to this morning, with lows only falling into the 40s for
most locations. A few spot upper 30s is possible in the normal
colder hollows, but we shouldn't see any frost. For Friday, filtered
sunshine through high clouds is expected, along with a slight
increase in southerly winds which will bump temps up into the
Short term /Friday night through Saturday/...
as of 343 am EDT Thursday...upper ridge and its associated surface
high pressure system remain in place over the northeast Friday night
and Saturday. Warming aloft will allow for both nighttime and
daytime temperatures with lows Friday night in the 50s and highs on
Saturday in the 70s to lower 80s. No precipitation is expected
Friday night and Saturday with just some fog in the favored areas.
Otherwise should see plenty of sunshine on Saturday.
Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
as of 343 am EDT Thursday...dry conditions continue into Sunday along
with warmer temperatures as upper ridge axis shifts east and
southwest flow develops in the low and mid levels. Highs on Sunday
will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s with plenty of sunshine once
again. The southwest flow is associated with an upstream trough and
this feature will eventually move eastward late Sunday night and
across our area on Monday. As a result...expect increasing
precipitation chances late Sunday night with showers likely for much
of the area on Monday. The clouds and precipitation on Monday will
keep high temperatures down in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Upper
trough eventually shifts east Monday night and helps bring the
precipitation to an end from west to east. Cooler and drier weather
is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Aviation /12z Thursday through Monday/...
through 12z Friday...VFR conditions will persist through the
period except for lingering vlifr fog at kmpv and kslk through
1330z. Sky clear through early afternoon will give way to increasing
mid/high clouds towards/after sunset. Calm winds this morning trend
southwesterly around 5kts through the day, except southeast at
Friday: VFR. No sig weather.
Friday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Saturday: mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. No sig weather.
Saturday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Sunday: VFR. No sig weather.
Sunday night: VFR. Chance rain showers.
Monday: mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely rain showers.
Vermont...frost advisory until 9 am EDT this morning for vtz003-006>008-
Freeze warning until 9 am EDT this morning for vtz004.
New York...frost advisory until 9 am EDT this morning for nyz029>031-034.