Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbtv 151425
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
1025 am EDT sun Sep 15 2019
high pressure is beginning to build into the north country.
Mostly dry conditions will prevail for the next several days.
Highs will be near seasonal norms and then gradually become
above normal towards the end of the week.
Near term /through Monday/...
as of 1023 am EDT Sunday...temperatures have been warming
quickly under mostly clear skies this morning. Our current temps
are already just 4-7 degrees away from forecasted highs so went
ahead and bumped up temps a degree or two as cloud cover this
afternoon with the approaching shortwave should stifle
temperatures this afternoon. Based on recent radar imagery,
have tapered pops off for today and even tonight as a plethora
of dry air should prevent much, if any, precipitation making it
to the ground. Enjoy a beautiful late Summer north country day!
a compact upper shortwave advects into the north country on
Sunday, but better dynamics and moisture remains south of the
area. Some virga will be possible as the the shortwave pushes
east. Otherwise, we will be partly to mostly cloudy with highs
near in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Overnight lows should cool
into the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Another upper shortwave pushes south into our area Monday
morning. Similar to Sunday, lack of moisture and dynamical
support, along with strengthening surface high pressure should
keep precipitation to a minimum. Best chances for very light
showers will be across the Adirondacks and southern Vermont.
Otherwise, another dry day with highs in the 60s.
Short term /Monday night through Tuesday/...
as of 404 am EDT Sunday...a northerly low-level flow sets up Monday
night into Tuesday with cold advection allowing 850 temps to fall to
3-5c early Tuesday before moderating back to 5-7c especially west of
The Greens Tuesday afternoon. With the cold pocket at 850 and north
to northwest orographic lift expecting a decent amount of fair
weather stratocu in the short term, gradually lessening except a bit
more persistent in the nek and eastern Vermont as the cold pocket
gradually moves east and high pressure drifts southward through the
region. All in all there should less clouds west and more east and
temperatures will follow suit with lows mainly in the 40s and highs
in the 60s.
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
as of 404 am EDT Sunday...the long term period looks mostly sunny and
dry with temperatures warming above normal by Wed through Sat.
Our weather pattern will be dominated by an amplifying upper level
ridge aloft to our west with a mainly dry northwest flow over our
region. High pressure at the surface Tue slowly drifts over our
region then off to our south and east by Thu and Fri allowing
temperatures to moderate right into Saturday. 850 temps climb from
about 7c on Wed to 10c on Thu to 13c on Fri/Sat.
Normal high temps will be in the upper 60s next week so we'll be
looking for daytime highs in the lower 70s Wed, mid 70s Thu, and
upper 70s to near 80 by Fri/Sat. Lows will be coolish with lots of
40s and a few 30s Wed morning but climbing a few degrees each
morning to be in the 50s area wide by Sat.
Aviation /15z Sunday through Thursday/...
through 12z Monday...fog quickly dissipating this morning with
VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Light west-
southwesterly to westerly winds around 5 to 10 knots with
occasional 15 knot gusts for today. The exception to VFR
conditions will be after 08z Monday at kmss and kslk where fog
is expected. Kmpv could see a period of low stratus and/or fog
beyond 06z Monday. Clouds increase from 16z to 00z with ceilings
of about 4000-7000ft agl.
Monday: VFR. No sig weather.
Monday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Tuesday: VFR. No sig weather.
Tuesday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Wednesday: VFR. No sig weather.
Wednesday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Thursday: VFR. No sig weather.