Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbtv 200750
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
350 am EDT Fri Sep 20 2019
high pressure over the north country will continue to provide fair
and dry conditions through Sunday with warm afternoon highs and
seasonably cool overnight lows. An upper low moving east from the
Great Lakes will bring a round of showers early Monday morning
through Tuesday, with high pressure returning for the middle of
Near term /through Saturday/...
as of 349 am EDT Friday...chamber of Commerce weather continues
across the north country for the next 36 hours with continued fair
and dry conditions expected. Difference for today compared to the
past few days will be a noticeable increase in sky cover as the
forecast area is now situated on the eastern periphery of an upper
ridge centered over the Great Lakes. Scattered mid/high clouds
rounding the crest of the ridge will continue to stream north to
south across the County Warning Area through the day providing some filtered
sunshine, but with 925-850mb temps warming into the plus-teens
celsius, afternoon highs will rise well above seasonal normals into
the mid/upper 70s.
Outside of some lowering clouds across north-central and northeast
Vermont, tonight should see a gradual clearing of mid/high clouds
across most of the region with lows several degrees warmer than the
previous night in the upper 40s to upper 50s. On Saturday, the upper
ridge centers over the area with temps warming aloft a few more
degrees supporting highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Should be an
almost clouds-less day as well, with perhaps a few cirrus streaming
in from the northwest in the afternoon.
Short term /Saturday night through Sunday/...
as of 349 am EDT Friday...Saturday night into Sunday we begin the
transition to southwesterly flow in the low and mid levels as an
upstream trough takes shape over the upper Midwest. Warm air
advection will be taking place along with moisture advection. As a
result...warmer overnight lows are expected Saturday night with
readings in the lower 50s to lower 60s. Sunday should be the warmest
day of the weekend with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s...which
will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Despite
the moisture advection no precipitation is expected as forcing
remains well to the west of the area.
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
as of 349 am EDT Friday...trends in the data support the idea of a
little slower timing to the onset of precipitation Sunday night into
Monday as upper trough remains well west of the region. At this time
it appears northern New York will have the best chance for showers
late Sunday night with activity eventually spreading into Vermont on
Monday. Precipitation will be fairly widespread on Monday and have
increased precipitation chances into the likely to low categorical
range for most of the area. And it now appears the showers will hold
on a it longer as upper trough wants to close off over the area late
Monday night into Tuesday before exiting to the east. Going forecast
has this covered well and have continued to hold onto precipitation
during this period. Also of note in the Monday-Tuesday time period
is the transition to cooler 925 millibar temperatures. Highs on
Monday will generally be in the 70s...but only in the upper 50s to
mid 60s on Tuesday with clouds and showers helping to keep
temperatures down. Despite the upper trough closing off over the
northeast it remains progressive and thus drier weather returns
Tuesday night through Wednesday night before next shortwave trough
approaches on Thursday and starts to increase precipitation chances
later in the day. A slow warming trend is expected Wednesday into
Aviation /08z Friday through Tuesday/...
through 06z Saturday...VFR conditions will prevail through the
period with the exception of LIFR fog at kmpv from 07-13z and
potentially 09-12z at kslk. Otherwise, scattered-bkn250 deck will
gradually lower to around 150 mid-morning before scattering out
this afternoon/evening. Light and variable winds through
sunrise trend south/southwest at 5-8kts through the day, then
back to light and variable after sunset.
Saturday: VFR. No sig weather.
Saturday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Sunday: VFR. No sig weather.
Sunday night: VFR. Chance rain showers.
Monday: mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely rain showers.
Monday night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance rain showers.
Tuesday: mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance