Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbtv 240228
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
1028 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019
dry weather is expected this weekend into early next week as a
large high pressure system settles in over the region.
Temperatures over the next few days will be at or slightly below
normal with lower relative humidities as well. The next chance
for precipitation will hold off until the middle of next week.
Near term /through Saturday night/...
as of 1026 PM EDT Friday...no major changes needed once again.
Clouds have cleared quickly thus far which has allowed
temperatures to drop a little quicker than expected. Low
temperatures still look on track as the dewpoints provide a
solid bottom to how far temps can drop tonight. Saranac Lake
just reached their crossover temperature and has begun to fog
in. Other locations should begin to see some patchy dense fog
within the next few hours.
Previous discussion...overall looking at quiet weather
through Saturday night as high pressure gradually builds into
the region. Shallow cumulus from cold air advection will
decrease in areal coverage this evening but area of clouds
across much of Quebec associated with an upper trough will move
southward across the area later tonight. Clouds will be more
noticeable across the northern third of the area and this should
allow for fog to develop in the typical locations. Lows tonight
will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s with a few locations pushing
40 degrees in the northern Adirondacks. Fog Burns off in the
morning and any thicker cloud cover should also erode on
Saturday. This will allow highs to reach the upper 60s to mid
70s. No precipitation is expected on Saturday as well as
Saturday night with lows once again in the mid 40s to mid 50s
and a few spots reaching 40 degrees in the northern Adirondacks.
Short term /Sunday through Sunday night/...
as of 328 PM EDT Friday...weak upper low to our southeast will
move northeast and have no impact on our area. As a result...dry
weather is expected for Sunday and Sunday night. Should see a
bit more sunshine with highs in the 70s and lows Sunday night in
the mid 40s to mid 50s.
Long term /Monday through Friday/...
as of 328 PM EDT Friday...upper level ridging takes hold again
for Monday and Tuesday and we will see a continuation of dry
weather...plenty of sunshine...and a slow warming. Highs should
reach seasonal normals by Tuesday. Its now looking like the
Wednesday through Friday time period will see southwest flow
aloft getting established with a return of moisture. This should
increase the chances for showers during this period. Conditions
at this time for any organized convection looks low at this
Aviation /03z Saturday through Wednesday/...
through 00z Sunday...VFR conditions will persist through the
evening hours with northwest winds diminishing from 8-10 knots
this evening to light and variable after sunset. It's looking
more favorable for some fog at kslk and and kmpv tonight given
some clearing ahead of the next cloud shield which should allow
for some LIFR fog from 7z-12z. Any fog that develops will
quickly lift Saturday morning with light northerly winds and
VFR conditions prevailing through the remainder of the forecast
Saturday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Sunday: VFR. No sig weather.
Sunday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Monday: VFR. No sig weather.
Monday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Tuesday: VFR. No sig weather.
Tuesday night: mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance rain showers.
Wednesday: mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance rain showers.