Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbtv 070850
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
350 am EST Sat Dec 7 2019
a few flurries are possible today with snow showers across higher
summits. Mainly dry and colder weather arrives this afternoon before
temperatures rebound nicely on Sunday. The milder trend continues
into early next week with increasing chances for rainfall by Monday
afternoon into Tuesday. Cold conditions return for the middle of
Near term /through Sunday/...
as of 321 am EST Saturday...surface high builds over the north
country today, expecting decreasing clouds through the day with
drier air working into the area. Upslope flurries and mountain snow
showers are expected, especially in the morning, as upper level
trough and some vorticity advection remains over the area. Low level
flow will become more unblocked during the afternoon and backside of
upper level trough kicks through this evening. Maximum temperatures
this afternoon will range through the 20s. Surface high crests over
our area around 00z, and temperatures will drop quickly following
sunset. Minimum temperatures will bottom out in the single digits
above zero, then rise later in the overnight as some clouds start to
stream into the area as flow begins to pick up out of the southwest.
Surface high slides off the New England coast on Sunday, and
increasing winds are anticipated out of the south-southwest with
increased pressure gradient and 45 to 50 kt low level jet moving
into the area. Strong low level warm air advection set up, and
maximum temperatures will range through the 30s. Windy conditions
develop across northern New York and into the Champlain Valley,
especially in the St Lawrence and Champlain valleys where channeled
flow will enhance the gusty winds. We may near Wind Advisory
criteria, will have to monitor for this potential. Winds will gust
in the 35-40 mph range.
Short term /Sunday night through Monday night/...
as of 350 am EST Saturday...a warm front will lift across the north
country Sunday night into Monday as low pressure moves from the
upper Midwest and across the Great Lakes. Moisture will increase
through the overnight hours Sunday night on a 850mb low level jet.
This will also allow warm air advection, and the result will be
light precipitation spreading across the north country later Sunday
night through Monday. The Champlain and St Lawrence valleys will
mainly see plain rain, but cold surface temperatures across the
Adirondacks and east of the Green Mountains mean a period of sleet
and/or freezing rain. Any sleet accumulation or ice accretion will
be light, but still anticipate a slippery commute for some areas
early Monday morning. Temperatures will continue to warm through the
day Monday, with eventually everyone warming to at least the upper
30s; hence all mixed precip will turn over to rain by afternoon.
Brisk southwest flow will result in the usual quantitative precipitation forecast shadowing in the
Champlain Valley, along with breezy surface winds Sunday night into
early Monday. Rain will continue Monday night with temperatures
remaining steady in the mid and upper 30s as the aforementioned low
lifts well to our west. Overall quantitative precipitation forecast through this period will be a
quarter to a little over three-quarters of an inch, the highest
amounts in southern Vermont. Given the minimal snow cover, therefore
don't anticipate any Hydro concerns with this round of
Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
as of 350 am EST Saturday...low pressure will move by well to our
north, eventually shifting east of the region Tuesday afternoon,
dragging its attendant cold front across the north country. This is
quite a potent front, and anticipate temperatures will drop sharply
Tuesday afternoon. We will need to watch for a potential flash
freeze, though the best moisture will move east of the region at
that time, as well. Should any precipitation linger, it will be rain
quickly changing over to snow. A broad upper trough and a secondary
frontal passage will keep the risk of snow showers around for
Wednesday, with temperatures only topping out in the 20s. Ridging
takes hold Thursday and Friday, leading to a cool but dry end to the
Aviation /09z Saturday through Wednesday/...
through 06z Sunday...continued low cloud cover will yield
mostly MVFR conditions at mpv, rut, btv, and slk, while VFR
conditions will prevail at mss and pbg tonight with more
scattered clouds and higher ceilings. All sites should be VFR
Saturday through the evening, although MVFR conditions may
linger at btv and slk (due to ceilings between 2000 and 3000
feet) through 20z. A shift from northwest to westerly and
southwesterly winds will occur at slk and mss, respectively,
towards daybreak, but elsewhere little change in winds through
the next 24 hours. Wind speeds will remain light at under 10
Sunday: VFR. No sig weather.
Sunday night: mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Chance fzra, slight chance rain.
Monday: mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite ra, likely
Monday night: mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite
Tuesday: mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance rain showers.
Tuesday night: mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance shsn.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance shsn.