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FXUS61 KBTV 142014

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
414 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019

A weak, mainly dry cold front will swing through the area this 
evening with little fanfare. High pressure briefly returns for 
Tuesday before stronger low pressure and steadier rainfall 
arrive by later Wednesday into Thursday. Some of the rain may 
fall heavily at times, though uncertainty remains on exact 
amounts and areal placement.


As of 315 PM EDT Monday...A weak cold front continues to 
progress steadily eastward into the forecast area as of mid- 
afternoon. Despite increasing cloud cover moisture is rather 
limited along the boundary and only lower-end, spotty chances 
for a few light showers or sprinkles will be maintained across 
northern counties through early evening. By later tonight the 
front will push well east allowing shortwave ridging to build 
into the area with skies becoming gradually clear in the pre- 
dawn hours. Low temperatures a blend of bias-corrected MOS data 
- mainly 30s to locally around 40 in the Champlain Valley.

Aforementioned high then bridges atop and east of the area 
during Tuesday/Tuesday night. Tuesday should feature mostly 
sunny skies and light winds with afternoon temperature maxima 
topping out in the 50s. Tuesday night lows should run similar to
tonight's readings, though tend to level off from the Champlain
Valley west after midnight as low level flow trends light 
southerly over time.


As of 400 PM EDT Monday...Surface low pressure system will 
track from the Northeastern Great Lakes area into Ontario on 
Wednesday. Later in the day Wed, a secondary low forms off the 
Delmarva coast, eventually becoming the deeper of the two lows. 
GFS continues to be a bit of an outlier with a track further 
west. Other global models continue to show the coastal low 
tracking inside the benchmark and then north into New Hampshire.
Strong pressure gradient in place ahead of this system on Wed, 
will have strong gusty winds through the first half of the day. 
Precipitation will begin from west to east during the second 
half of the day Wed. Still some uncertainty with how much the 
low along the coast deepens, and it's track. It continues to 
look like best chance for heavy rain will be across Southern and
Eastern Vermont. An inch to an inch and a half of rain is 
anticipated, and up to two inches is not out of the question. 
Somewhere should get a good dump of rain with strong
frontogeneticforcing with low possibly bombing out off the New
England coast. As coastal surface low lifts northeastward, 
upper level low will drop in behind it and cold air will be 
enough to change over some of the rain showers to snow showers 
over the higher elevations. 


As of 410 PM EDT Monday...Wrap around showers will continue on 
Thursday into Thursday night. Should be cold enough for some 
snow showers in the higher elevations of VT and Northern NY. 
Upper level trough will be overhead with decent short wave 
energy as well. Showers will taper off early Friday morning. 
Surface and upper level ridges will then be over the region from
Friday through Sunday, should be a nice weekend. Looking ahead 
to next the weather looks pretty active with next system to 
bring next chance for showers on Monday and possibly a large 
scale system for mid-week. 


Through 18Z Tuesday...VFR conditions expected through the 
forecast period. BKN/OVC cigs generally in the 050-100 AGL range
expected into the 00-06Z time frame with mainly dry frontal 
passage, trending mainly SKC by 12Z Tuesday as high pressure 
builds atop the region. Winds mainly south to southwesterly and 
occasional gusty at selected terminals through 21Z, trending 
westerly and abating to 5 kts or less overnight, then light and 
variable after 12Z Tuesday. 


Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Likely RA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
RA, Likely SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.





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