Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbtv 181405
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
1005 am EDT Wed Sep 18 2019
quiet weather continues on for the rest of the week as high pressure
dominates over the north country through to the weekend. The only
weather of of note is some patchy frost across portions of the
northern Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom this morning and again
tonight as temperatures in these locations drop into the lower 30s.
High temperatures look to warm each day with this weekend seeing a
return to the 80s. The next significant chance for rainfall looks to
be early next week.
Near term /through Thursday/...
as of 1005 am EDT Wednesday...no changes needed to the forecast
as of late morning. Surface high pressure centered near Quebec
city late this morning will provide fair and seasonably mild
weather to the region today with mostly sunny skies and light
north to northeasterly winds generally less than 10 mph. So get
out and enjoy!
Excerpts from prior discussion...
surface high shifts over the eastern quarter of the cwa,
leading to another cool night with fog expected in favored river
valleys once again and parts of the dacks and nek seeing
frost/freeze conditions. Look for overnight lows in the mid 30s
to lower 40s with colder spots in the dacks/nek in the upper 20s
to lower 30s.
Thursday will flow slowly shift to the southwest with continued
minimal cloud cover and high temperatures in the upper 60s and low
Short term /Thursday night through Friday/...
as of 348 am EDT Wednesday...no change in the forecast for the end of
the work week from what we've previously been advertising with
surface high pressure persisting over the northeast and a ridge
aloft just west of the County Warning Area. Should see fairly sunny/clear skies with
some passing cirrus, along with an increasing south/southwesterly
return flow which will allow temps to warm slightly from the
previous days. Look for lows in the 40s/50s Thursday night, and
highs Friday in the mid/upper 70s.
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
as of 348 am EDT Wednesday...heading into the weekend, the
aforementioned upper ridge centers over the northeast Saturday,
while high pressure strengthens over the southeast. This combination
will continue the warming trend from the previous days with a return
of Summer-like temperatures as highs push into the upper 70s to low
80s for both Saturday and Sunday. On Sunday, we should see some
gusty winds across the region as the pressure gradient increases
between departing high pressure and an approaching trough. Guidance
is coming into better agreement with the timing and strength of this
trough, with the European model (ecmwf) and CMC slightly deeper/stronger than the
GFS, along with a deeper and more prolonged moisture axis Sunday
night into Monday. Currently, the best chance chance for rain looks
to be across northern New York Sunday night, then uncertainty
increases Monday. European model (ecmwf) solution would offer a washout Monday, while
the GFS could be more showery and/or dry. I'll be offering a middle
of the Road forecast for now with high chances, but the trend is
certainly looking wetter. Behind this system though, high pressure
looks to make a brief return for Tuesday night and Wednesday with a
return of more fall-like temperatures.
Aviation /14z Wednesday through Sunday/...
through 12z Thursday...currently VFR at most stations with
light variable winds across the region. LIFR fog at kslk and
kmpv should last for the first hour of the taf period, but not
much longer beyond that. Beyond 13z, VFR conditions at all
terminals expected once fog evaporates to clear skies and light
north to northeast winds at 5 to 10 knots. IFR/LIFR is possible
again tonight for kslk, kmpv and to a lesser degree, kmss and
Thursday: VFR. Patchy br.
Thursday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Friday: VFR. No sig weather.
Friday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Saturday: mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. No sig weather.
Saturday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Sunday: VFR. No sig weather.