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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton Massachusetts
1004 am EST Tue Nov 12 2019

Synopsis...
a strong cold front sweeps across the region into the early
afternoon with rain showers which will end as a brief period of
snow along with rapidly falling temperatures. Record cold along
with windy conditions follow tonight into Wednesday.
Temperatures begin to moderate on Thursday, but will still be
below normal for the middle of November. Even milder weather is
on tap for Friday, but that will be short lived as a cold front
Ushers in a return to well below normal temperatures later
Friday night and Saturday. We then will have to watch an
offshore storm early next week, but it remains uncertain if it
will impact our region. Temperatures should moderate some early
next week.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...

As of late morning the cold front had reached the central hills
of southern New England and was continuing to move east. Light
rain was occuring along this front. Temperatures at that same
time had dropped below freezing along the east slopes of the
Berkshires, and this colder air was also moving east. Meanwhile
areas of fog lingered over northeast mass.

We continue to expect light rain to move through Rhode Island and eastern
Massachusetts this afternoon, with rain in western/central Massachusetts/northern CT
changing to snow for an hour or two before ending. Behind the
cold front, expect falling temperatures during the afternoon.

Falling temperatures this afternoon in the cold advection behind
the cold front. Air temperatures will be falling below
freezing, but ground temperatures remain above, so accumulations
will be limited and generally less than an inch...maybe an in
or so in the higher terrain. The colder air temps could cause a
few slippery spots but the ground temperatures will limit any
general freezing.

A few strong gusts reported in SW Connecticut this
morning, such as 36 mph at Bridgeport. Expect increasing
northwest winds behind the cold front this afternoon as pressure
gradient increases.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Wednesday/...
*** record cold and bitter cold wind chills late tonight and Wed
morning

The last of the rain/snow exits the Outer Cape/islands early
evening, otherwise clearing skies tonight with mostly sunny
skies Wed. The main story will be the bitter cold airmass for
mid November which will advect across new eng on gusty northwest winds.
Gusts to 30-40 mph expected tonight with gradually diminishing
wind during Wed, especially in the afternoon.

925 mb temps down to near -15c by 12z Wed. Lows will drop into
the teens with some single numbers possible in the Berkshires
which will be near record lows. High on Wed only mid 20s to
lower 30s which would establish record low maxes at all 4
climate sites. Wind chills will bottom out between 5 below and
5 above across much of southern New England late tonight and early Wed.

&&

Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/...
highlights...



* near record cold again Wed night, but with light winds

* moderating temps Thu, but still below normal

* seasonable temps briefly return Fri, but turning cold again by Sat

* watching offshore storm late sun into Tue with moderating temps

Details...

Wednesday night...

Large high pressure will be centered over New England with an
anomalously cold airmass in place. This combined with light winds
will result in the potential for near record low temps. The only
thing that may temper things a bit will be some mid/high level
cloudiness that will overspread the region. Model cross sections do
show this risk, so something will have to watch.

Right now we are thinking lows bottom out between 5 and 10 above
across the normally coldest outlying locations, to mainly the teens
elsewhere. The urban heat island of Boston probably does not drop
below 20. So a wide range in overnight low temps across the region,
but without the wind it will not feel as harsh as tonight will be.

Thursday and Thursday night...

High pressure moving off the coast will allow a return flow of
milder southwest air to work into the region. Afternoon high temps
should recover into the upper 30s and lower 40s. While those
readings are still below normal, it will be a significant improvement
compared to Wednesday along with much less wind.

We expect a fair amount of clouds to develop Thu, but peeks of
sunshine too especially in the morning. Deep moisture and synoptic
scale forcing is lacking, so perhaps just a few brief spot rain
showers near southeast New England coast by Thu night. Boundary
layer will be mild enough in that region that any spotty/light
precipitation should be liquid.

Friday...

High pressure east of our region along with an approaching cold
front will continue to result in southwest flow and milder temps.
Mainly dry weather with expected highs to reach the upper 40s to the
lower 50s.

Friday night and Saturday...

A strong cold front will cross the region Fri night. Very little
moisture is available, so should come through dry other than perhaps
a brief flurry/snow shower in western Massachusetts. The main story will be
another shot of unseasonably cold air. Although the 850t probably
will not get as cold as our airmass late tonight and Wednesday, the
cold air will be coming in from more of a northerly direction with a
1037 mb high in Quebec. This is a good feed for New England, so it
should turn much colder. Highs on Sat will only be in the 30s. May
even have to watch for a bit of ocean effect light snow
showers/flurries across the cape/ack with northerly winds Sat into
Sat night.

Sunday through Tuesday...

A great deal of forecast uncertainty exists in this time frame. The
upper level trough over the northeast begins to relax, but will be
watching southern stream energy that will lead to the development of
an ocean storm. Not sure how much interaction it will have with
northern stream energy. So it remains uncertain if most of the
precipitation remains offshore or ends up impacting much of our
region. If we do end up getting impacted early next week, ptype
would probably favor rain given modifying airmass. Still would have
to watch for a bit of snow/ice across the interior if precip were to
come in on the earlier side. Not much more to say at this point,
but do expect temps to moderate some early next week.

&&

Aviation /15z Tuesday through Saturday/...
forecaster confidence levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Wednesday/...moderate confidence.

This afternoon...moderate confidence.

Fog over northeast Massachusetts will lift as the cold front moves through
the area and scours out the low level air. Light rain continues
to move east through the region wetting surfaces. The cold front
was across central Massachusetts and eastern CT late morning and will
continue to move east this afternoon.

Cold air moves in behind the front, with falling temperatures
through the afternoon. Northwest winds will increase during the
afternoon with gusts reaching 25-30 kt. As the below- freezing
air works east, patchy ice is possible although warmer ground
temperatures will limit the extent of any icing.

Tonight...high confidence.
Lingering MVFR cape/islands early, otherwise VFR with clearing
skies. Northwest gusts 25-30 kt.

Wednesday...high confidence.
VFR. Gusty northwest winds in the morning, diminishing in the
afternoon.

Kbos terminal...moderate confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal...moderate confidence in taf.

Outlook /Wednesday night through Saturday/...

Wednesday night: VFR. Breezy.

Thursday through Thursday night: mainly VFR, with local MVFR
possible. Breezy.

Friday: VFR. Breezy.

Friday night through saturday: VFR. Strong winds with local
gusts up to 40 kt.

&&

Marine...
short term /through Wednesday/...high confidence.

Southwest gusts to 25-30 kt over south coastal waters shift out
of the northwest this afternoon as a cold front moves through.
The northwest winds may start quiet, but expect to increase
on all waters during the afternoon. Gusts peaking at 35-40 kt
tonight with gradually diminishing wind during Wed. Gale
warnings continue on all waters. Visibility restrictions in
rain and fog especially this afternoon.

Outlook /Wednesday night through Saturday/...

Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Thursday: winds less than 25 kt.

Thursday night: low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of
rain showers.

Friday: low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday night: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up
to 40 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Saturday: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft.

&&

Climate...
record low min temps for Wednesday Nov 13

Boston 14/1883
Hartford 18/2001
Providence 20/2001
Worcester 15/1986

Record low Max temps for Wednesday Nov 13

Boston 36/1874
Hartford 33/1911
Providence 37/1911
Worcester 32/1962,2013

Record low min temps for Thursday Nov 14

Boston 16/1905
Hartford 15/1986
Providence 16/1905
Worcester 10/1986

&&

Box watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Rhode Island...none.
Marine...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Wednesday
for anz231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 am EST Wednesday for
anz230-236.

&&

$$
Synopsis...kjc/Frank
near term...wtb/kjc/Frank
short term...kjc

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