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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado
322 PM MDT sun Sep 22 2019

Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 242 PM MDT sun Sep 22 2019

Drying and subsidence has quashed the convection over the
mountains, and the few clouds over the northeast corner will
likely meet a similar fate by sunset. This will lead to a clear
night with the wind over the mountains decreasing, and cool
overnight temperatures again. It looks like it will be at least
midday Monday before anything but the thinnest cirrus arrives, so
after a cool start to the day, temperatures should climb to 5-10
degrees warmer than today. Current forecast has this all covered
pretty well.

Long term...(monday night through sunday)
issued at 223 PM MDT sun Sep 22 2019

A weak upper trough is expected to move into the County Warning Area late Monday
night into early Tuesday morning. There is weak north-
northwesterly flow aloft progged for the rest of Tuesday.
Northwesterly flow aloft continues in place Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Weak downward energy is progged on the qg Omega
fields Monday night through Wednesday evening. The low level winds
should adhere to the normal diurnal trends Monday night into
Tuesday evening. A cold front moves in Tuesday night with upslope
flow behind it. East and southeasterlies are progged on Wednesday
with normal drainage patterns for Wednesday night. For moisture,
it remains pretty dry with precipitable water values in the 0.25
to 0.50 inch range through Tuesday evening. I bit of low level
moisture moves into the northeast behind the cold front Tuesday
overnight into early Wednesday, then moves eastward out the of the
County Warning Area late in the day. There is no measurable precipitation
indicated on the quantitative precipitation forecast fields through Wednesday night. No pops for
the County Warning Area with the great lack of moisture expected. For temperatures,
tuesday's highs look to be 0-1.5 c warmer than monday's.
Wednesday's readings will be 3.5-7.0 c cooler than tuesday's. For
the later days, Thursday through Sunday, models have weak westerly
flow aloft on Thursday with above normal warmth. A weak upper
trough moves across Thursday night into Friday morning. After that
through Sunday, southwesterly flow aloft will be on the gradually
increase as a significant upper trough entrenches itself over the
western United States. Moisture increases somewhat Thursday
overnight int Saturday, then it dries out again through Sunday.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 242 PM MDT sun Sep 22 2019

VFR through Monday with light winds.

&&

Bou watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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