Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus65 kbou 122120 
afdbou

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado
220 PM MST Tue Nov 12 2019

Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 215 PM MST Tue Nov 12 2019

Water vapor imagery showing a dry airmass over the region with moisture
moving over the upper ridge. This moisture will increase across
the northern mountains and plains with the upper jet bringing
increasing cloud cover and cross barrier mountain flow during the
overnight hours. A surface cold front will drop south over the
plains Wednesday morning associated with a shortwave that is
embedded in the upper level flow. The associated jet will bring
the right entrance region across the plains with the main branch
of lift staying to the north over Wyoming. Some light snow may be
possible across the park and Gore ranges of the northern mountains
Wednesday but conditions will stay dry elsewhere. The previously
mentioned wind gusts will increase during the morning hours with
speeds up to 55 mph for areas above 10,000 feet and gusts from
25-35 over the eastern plains.

Temperatures for Wednesday will be cooler given the passage of the
surface cold front with -2 to -3c at 700 mb. This will bring highs
into the lower 50s across the plains.

Long term...(wednesday night through tuesday)
issued at 215 PM MST Tue Nov 12 2019

Strong northwesterly flow aloft is progged over the County Warning Area Wednesday
night as a weak upper trough moves southeastward in the flow. The
flow aloft decreases significantly Thursday through Friday and is
westerly in direction as an upper ridge moves across Colorado. The
flow aloft increases a bit and is more west-southwesterly on
Friday night ahead of a developing trough to the northwest. The qg
Omega fields show some weak upward motion Wednesday evening, then
decent subsidence overnight and Thursday morning. After that,
benign synoptic scale energy is progged for the County Warning Area through Friday
night. The low level winds look pretty Standard through the five
periods; adhering to normal diurnal trends throughout. For
moisture, there is some in the lower levels Wednesday night,
mainly over the eastern half of the plains. Otherwise is is pretty
dry for the County Warning Area through Friday. By Friday night, some upper level
moisture is on the increase ahead of the next upper trough. There
is no measurable precipitation noted on the quantitative precipitation forecast fields Wednesday
night through Friday night. Will leave pops out of the grids
through Friday night. For temperatures, thursday's highs are 2-4 c
warmer than wednesday's. Friday's highs are another 2-4 c warmer
than thursday's. For the later days, Saturday through Tuesday,
models have a fast moving upper trough push across the County Warning Area later
on Saturday. On Sunday, there is northwesterly flow aloft with
flat upper ridging on Monday into Tuesday. Some models are showing
upper troughing moving on later on Tuesday. Grids have some
scattered pops in Saturday and Saturday evening, which is fine. It
is pretty dry after that until Tuesday, when the next trough and
moisture move in.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 215 PM MST Tue Nov 12 2019

VFR conditions expected for the period. Winds will continue out of
the SW before switching to the NE by 21z and then back to
drainage by 02z with speeds generally staying under 10kts. Mid-
level moisture will increase by the evening hours.

&&

Bou watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations