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fxus65 kboi 151543 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Boise Idaho
943 am MDT sun Sep 15 2019

Discussion...mostly sunny skies and breezy conditions will lead
to a hot day across the region. Latest models are consistent with
frontal timing tomorrow as a large upper level low moves into the
pacnw. We are still expecting a big change in temps for tomorrow,
as highs will be 10 to 20 degrees cooler than today. No changes
for now.


Aviation...VFR. Mostly clear today with increasing high clouds
tonight. Expect south to southwest surface winds of 15 to 20 kts
gusting to 25 kts this afternoon across most of southwestern Idaho
and southeastern Oregon. Surface winds in the Snake River Plain
of Idaho will be more from a southeasterly direction at around 10
kts. Winds aloft at around 10,000 feet msl will be from the
southwest at 30 kts.


Previous discussion...
short term...smoke plume from a prescribed burn in the SW corner
of Idaho continues to stream northeast into our County Warning Area. Will keep
smoke wording in the forecast through noon but smoke may continue
beyond that. Today will be the last hot day as upper flow backs to
southwesterly ahead of an incoming Pacific trough. We kept Max
temp forecasts about where they were yesterday, upper 70s and 80s
N the mountains and mid 80s to mid 90s in the valleys. Strong cold
front will pass through eastern Oregon Monday morning, reach the
or/Idaho border midday, and move across western Idaho Monday
afternoon. Front will bring a wind shift to gusty northwest, with
a sharp drop in temperature behind it. Showers will follow the
front in eastern Oregon, but they will weaken as they get into
western Idaho Monday evening, then redevelop in central and south-
central Idaho Monday night and Tuesday morning, while the Oregon
zones clear. After a break Tuesday an even stronger upper trough
will approach from the Gulf of Alaska with more showers in eastern
Oregon and west central Idaho late Tuesday night through
Wednesday, with more cool weather. Finally, we added patchy to the
forecasts in northern valleys Tuesday and Wednesday mornings due
to cool surface temps near moist ground.

Long term...Wednesday night through Sunday...models are currently
in good agreement. The upper level trough will maintain cool
showery weather through Friday. Chances of showers will decrease
over the weekend as the trough exits to the east. Highs will be
5-10 degrees below normal, with lows a couple of degrees below


Boi watches/warnings/advisories...




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