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FXUS65 KBOI 142050

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
250 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday...A weak upper level ridge
will move over the region late tonight and tomorrow morning.
Southwest flow will follow and last through Thu morning as an
upper level trough becomes established over the Pac coast. An
initial round of showers will move into eastern OR Wed evening,
and into southwest Idaho after midnight. Showers will be possible
over most of the area Thu morning, and by the afternoon the best
chances will be in the mountains. A relative break in the precip
should swing through Thu night and Fri, although we will still 
maintain low PoPs mainly in the mountains due to uncertainty, 
before a stronger wave moves in for Saturday. This wave will bring
widespread showers, with snow levels between 4500 and 5500 feet,
Friday night and Saturday. Temperatures will warm to around 5 
degrees above normal Tuesday before rising to around 10 degrees 
above normal Wed. As the first wave arrives Wed night and Thu,
temps will cool to around 5 degrees below normal for Thu's highs,
then remain there on Friday. As the stronger system arrives Sat,
temps will cool to around 10 degrees below normal. As each system
arrives, winds will increase out of the west or northwest. 

.LONG TERM...Saturday night through Monday...Mostly cloudy, 
showery, and breezy are the conditions anticipated as a series of
moist, upper level disturbances is expected to rip through the 
forecast area Saturday through Sunday afternoons. A lingering band
of post frontal moisture will continue to blanket most areas 
afterward but gradually shear apart and mix out, retreating 
northward, as drier ridging begins to move in. Look for snow to 
fall across most mountains and rain across most major valleys. 
Winds will finally lighten some by Monday afternoon as the 
pressure gradient begins to loosen. High and low temperature are 
expected to measure in 5 to 10 degrees below normal with a slight
warming trend starting Sunday.


.AVIATION...VFR under mostly clear skies. Surface winds: variable 
less than 10 kts, except W-NW 10-15 kts southeast of KBOI. Winds 
aloft at 10k ft MSL: west 10-20 kts.





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