Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kbmx 171957
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
257 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019
/updated at 0257 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019/
this afternoon through Wednesday.
We have a weak frontal boundary to our north stretching across
Tennessee that is expected to sink southward through tonight into
central Alabama. We are very dry overall and do not expect any
precipitation with this boundary this afternoon into tonight. On
satellite, our cumulus field is meager with little vertical
development today and late to show up on satellite. Temperatures
continue to be very warm today with some triple degree values
noted. While cool temperatures are not expected for Wednesday,
readings may be a degree or two lower for Wednesday north of the
boundary. However, the boundary may stall across the southern part
of the state. With upper ridging in place across much of the
southern and central parts of conus, with the exception of the
area near Imelda, hot values are still expected. Will continue
with an isolated late afternoon precip mention in the east for
Wednesday, which will depend on where and if the boundary stalls.
/updated at 0337 am CDT Tue Sep 17 2019/
Wednesday through Monday.
Subsidence and dry northerly flow will remain in place on
Wednesday ahead of an approaching "backdoor" front associated
with a wedge of high pressure to our east. Ahead of this front,
near or above record levels of heat will continue. The approaching
front could trigger isolated showers and storms across Georgia,
and some of this activity could move into our eastern counties
late Wednesday afternoon into the evening before diminishing
overnight. The front and associated enhanced moisture will
continue to move westward on Thursday, possibly yielding isolated
convection across our western counties.
The big story will be the significant drop in temperatures behind
the front for Thursday through Saturday. Afternoon highs will
range from the mid and upper 80s in the east, to the lower 90s in
the west. Overnight lows will also trend downward into the lower
to mid 60s for many locations. As surface high pressure weakens on
Sunday and Monday, temperatures will head into an uptrend as
easterly flow transitions to southerly and southwesterly.
18z taf discussion.
VFR conditions will continue to prevail through this cycle.
Deep-layer ridging over the region will continue to support VFR
conditions through this cycle. A surface cold front will approach
from the north tonight into tomorrow and will reinforce the dry
airmass across the area. A few cumulus clouds will form over the
next few hours and will persist until shortly after sunset
followed by clear skies overnight. Expect near calm winds
overnight followed by north to northeast winds on Wednesday with
cumulus field development commencing toward midday.
Aside from a slight chance of rain in the east fringe of the
state on Wednesday and in the west on Thursday, dry and hot
conditions will continue for the next several days. Afternoon
relative humidity values may locally drop below 30 percent late
this afternoon and below 35 percent on Wednesday. Kbdi values will
remain elevated as drought conditions persist.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 68 95 67 87 61 / 0 20 10 10 0
Anniston 69 95 68 87 61 / 0 20 10 10 0
Birmingham 71 97 70 90 65 / 0 10 10 10 0
Tuscaloosa 72 98 73 92 67 / 0 0 10 20 0
Calera 71 99 70 90 64 / 0 10 10 10 0
Auburn 71 95 68 85 62 / 0 20 10 10 0
Montgomery 72 100 71 91 64 / 0 10 10 10 0
Troy 70 98 69 89 62 / 0 20 10 10 0