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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
303 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Short term...
/updated at 0253 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019/

Central Alabama has managed to miss the diurnal convection so far
today, although the rain is not that far away. Band of
thunderstorms has formed to our north, in connection with the
cold front advancing toward our area. The front is still expected
to help push these storms into central Alabama later tonight and
into Tuesday. Will maintain the high pops (likely to categorical),
spreading from northwest to southeast, over the course of the next
24 hours. 12z model runs were a bit more definitive with the
influx of dry air into the northern counties after 18z Tuesday,
and the pops will be adjusted accordingly.

/61/

Long term...
/updated at 0358 am CDT Mon Jul 22 2019/

Tuesday night through Sunday.

Much drier air will be advected in behind the front for Wednesday
with small rain chances confined to our far southeastern
counties. A significant reduction in humidity will accompany the
frontal passage as dewpoints fall into the 50s and 60s. Morning
lows will also drop substantially, with some upper 50s possible in
the northern counties on Thursday morning. Beyond Thursday,
models continue to disagree regarding boundary layer moisture
recovery, with the European model (ecmwf) remaining much drier than the GFS. Our
updated forecast reflects a hedge between the two models and 20 to
40 percent rain chances gradually moving northward across the
forecast area from Friday through Sunday.

87/Grantham

&&

Aviation...
18z taf discussion.

Very little convective development in central Alabama so far
today, and the expectation is for typically scattered showers and
storms later this afternoon. I handled that expectation with
vcts, which can be updated if/when a location is more obviously in
the path of a storm.

Cold front pushing through the area tonight and Tuesday will bring
a bit more organized convection. I've tried to time out the time
of most likely thunderstorms and rain at each terminal, but this will obviously get
adjusted later as conditions dictate. Computer models strongly
suggest low level cloudiness (mvfr to possible IFR conditions)
even after the rain ends/tapers off on Tuesday.

/61/



&&

Fire weather...

A cold front will approach the region from the north this evening.
Numerous showers and storms will overspread the area tonight
through Tuesday afternoon.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 71 82 61 84 62 / 70 80 10 0 0
Anniston 72 82 64 84 63 / 60 80 10 0 0
Birmingham 72 83 64 85 64 / 60 80 10 0 0
Tuscaloosa 73 84 65 86 64 / 70 80 10 0 0
Calera 72 82 65 85 64 / 60 80 10 0 0
Auburn 72 82 66 84 65 / 40 90 40 10 0
Montgomery 73 84 68 86 66 / 40 90 30 0 0
Troy 72 84 68 85 66 / 20 90 40 10 0

&&

Bmx watches/warnings/advisories/...
none.

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