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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1004 PM CDT sun Aug 25 2019


Issued at 1002 PM CDT sun Aug 25 2019

Have expired the remainder of Severe Thunderstorm Watch number
619 with this forecast issuance. There will remain on outside
chance for a severe hail report across my far southeast over the
next one hour, thereafter this activity will be moving more into
the southern Red River valley.

Update issued at 914 PM CDT sun Aug 25 2019

The severe thunderstorm threat continues to diminish this evening.
Portions of the James River Valley remain in the Severe
Thunderstorm Watch for another hour with ongoing storms. Removed
all other counties.

issued at 745 PM CDT sun Aug 25 2019

Will allow a tier or two of the western counties within the watch
to expire with this update as the sfc cold front continues to push
east this evening. The severe threat continues along to east of
the front for another 2-3 hours when we will see decreasing
instability. Another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms
will move into southwestern ND overnight as a mid level wave
swings southeast into the western Dakotas.

Update issued at 322 PM CDT sun Aug 25 2019

For this update...issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for most of
central North Dakota. Convective initiation has started along the
front this afternoon with rapid updraft intensification. However,
storms have struggled to sustain themselves in this low shear
environment. More development is expected over the next two hours.


Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 142 PM CDT sun Aug 25 2019

The focus in the short term will be the severe thunderstorm
chances across central and eastern North Dakota this afternoon
and evening. A cold front, currently stretched across central
North Dakota, will continue to move east and be the focus for
thunderstorm initiation across central North Dakota late this
afternoon. Cape continues to increase to around 3000 j/kg this
afternoon with 0 to 6 km shear only around 25 knots. The main
threats will initially be large hail and very heavy rainfall
(though the progressive nature of storms should limit the
flooding threat), then potentially transitioning toward a wind
threat if an mesoscale convective system develops.

The severe storm threat should come to an end by around 10 PM
this evening across the James Valley.

Long term...(monday night through sunday)
issued at 142 PM CDT sun Aug 25 2019

The cold front will usher in gusty winds and cooler air for Monday
and Tuesday, with Tuesday the windier day. A Wind Advisory may be
required for at least a portion of the region Tuesday afternoon.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible as a
weak shortwave trough will swing through the upper low on Monday
into Tuesday, with the chances mainly north and east on Tuesday.

Then a dry and cool period will settle in for Wednesday through
Saturday with highs in the 60s to lower 70s and lows in the 40s
to lower 50s. Lows in the upper 30s may be possible across
northwest North Dakota Friday morning as a cool surface high
moves south.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)

Issued at 745 PM CDT sun Aug 25 2019

A cold front currently stretches across central North Dakota.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue along to east of the front
this evening, before activity weakens/moves east of the area. The
best chances for thunderstorms this evening will be at kjms now
through 03z. Kdik will then have a chance for a shower or storm
after 09z tonight. Monday will be windy with scattered showers and
thunderstorms during the daytime hours.


Bis watches/warnings/advisories...


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