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fxus63 kbis 182001 
afdbis

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
301 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

The shortwave trough is exiting the region and skies are sunny
west and south, and clearing north central. The winds are
subsiding, and will rapidly drop off this evening. Clear skies
tonight.

Thursday will see southerly return flow with mainly sunny skies.
Highs will be in the 70s to lower 80s.

Long term...(thursday night through wednesday)
issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

The quiet short term will end with the approaching h500 trough,
which is initially on the West Coast. This slow moving system
will move east and then swing through the northern plains Friday
into Saturday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
to begin late Thursday night, and continue Friday and Friday
night. Precipitable water is high, with values close to 3 Standard
deviations from the climate mean. Widespread moderate to
occasionally heavy rain can be expected, focused mainly across
the central and east, with heaviest amounts north.

Considering the threat for flooding, which is elevated, but
considering the rain will fall over 24 to 36 hours, have decided
to highlight this threat in teh hazardous weather outlook and out
discussions, as a Flood Watch is not warranted at this time. Also
the heavy rain area is shifted east from the past heavy rains in
western North Dakota, which is helpful.

Severe weather has also been highlighted, with abundant cape
becoming available, but with some displacement of the best shear
from the best cape.

After Saturday, expect a somewhat progressive flow with near
normal or slightly below normal temperatures ans widely scattered
showers.



&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1214 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Hazards to aviation today include the gusty westerly winds of 20
to 32 kts across west and central North Dakota Wednesday
afternoon. Winds will diminish rapidly by 21-22z. Otherwise VFR.



&&

Bis watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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