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FXUS63 KBIS 231719

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1219 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

High pressure is generally clearing most clouds across north
central North Dakota today. This trend will of decreasing clouds
will continue across the region. Gusty northwest winds of 15 to 
25 mph are expected most areas with the clearing. Current 
forecast looks ok.

UPDATE Issued at 842 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

The low pressure trough continues to move south through southwest
North Dakota, and the Bowman radar is tracking some light snow
exiting the region. 

After this, a region of high pressure will bring decreasing 
clouds across the region. Current forecast looks good. 

UPDATE Issued at 600 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

Latest water vapor shows the mid level/700mb low circulating over
Adams and Hettinger counties, continuing to shift south. 
Strongest forcing is now over, however, light snow on the northern
side of the low/trough will wane over the next few hours. Most of
the region will see mostly sunny conditions today after some 
morning clouds, the exception will be the Turtle Mountains into 
the northern James River Valley where these locations will be on 
the western edge of a stratus field pushing south from Manitoba. 
The stratus should exit by mid afternoon. Gridded elements on
track this morning. 


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

Latest water vapor imagery shows a compact 700mb-500mb low
pressure circulating through McKenzie county, Golden Valley, and
Billings counties. Ongoing ahead of this wave we have a nice
overlap of low level frontogenesis (925-850mb), steep mid level 
lapse rates, and strong ascent aloft. Regional and local radar, 
as well as surface observations and webcams show snow southwest 
and portions of south central North Dakota. The mid to upper level
low circulation will reach the southern border around 12z, 
bringing an end to the strongest forcing and instability. PoPs 
quickly taper off in southwest ND between 12z and 15z. Clouds will
decrease from northeast to southwest this morning and into the 
afternoon. However, an area of stratus is currently diving south 
from Manitoba towards the James River Valley. This should reach 
Jamestown by daybreak and continue until mid afternoon. Highs 
today will be fairly uniform across western and central ND with 
highs around 40F.

For tonight, mostly clear conditions will prevail for most of the
areas, the exception is across the southwest. Here, the
combination of a couple mid/upper level shortwaves propagating
from eastern Montana and into western North Dakota along with 
weak warm air advection will result in a little light snow, with 
snowfall accumulations of a couple tenths of an inch. Lows tonight
will be in the lower to mid 20s. 

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

Low level warm air advection begins and continues through Friday
evening, before our next clipper cold front nudges into northwest
North Dakota by 06z Saturday. Dry weather for Thursday and Friday
with partly cloudy conditions Thursday and Thursday night due to 
warm air advection processes, followed by a mostly clear sky
Friday and Friday evening warm air advection peaks. Highs Thursday
will be in the lower 40s, then warm into the 50s Friday, with
lower 60s southwest. As mentioned above, a clipper cold front will
follow Friday night through Saturday morning as colder air
intrudes. Precipitation chances non-existent north, with a slight
chance of rain or snow south during the day Saturday. Strong cold
air advection Saturday night into Sunday as a secondary cold front
pushes from north to south. Temperatures on Saturday will be
cooler with 40s west and central, to the lower 50s in the southern
James River Valley. By Sunday, everyone will be experience highs
in the lower to mid 30s. For Monday and Tuesday, it will get
colder as successive cold fronts Monday and again Tuesday will
produce some chances of snow. H850 temps on both the GFS and ECMWF
show -14C across western and central ND by Wednesday. Highs Monday
through Wednesday will be around 30F with lows in the mid teens 
to lower 20s. 


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

An area of high pressure will bring decreasing clouds to the  
region this afternoon. Expect VFR conditions (or becoming VFR at 
KJMS) this afternoon. Then some MVFR ceilings are possible KXWA-
KDIK Thursday morning, with clouds between 2 and 3 thousand agl.  




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