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FXUS63 KBIS 191001

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
501 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Current surface analysis places cold front dropping through the
upper midwest into the central plains, while high remains over the
northern Rockies into the Great Basin. Upper level analysis places
trough through the plains. A tight compact circulation sliding 
through the trough is now making its way into northwest North 
Dakota, resulting in a few light showers. Further west, then next 
trough is moving over the west coast.

For today, aforementioned circulation will continue its eastward
track, resulting in a few light showers over far northern portions
of the area. Otherwise, a quiet day with seasonal temperatures is
expected with a westerly breeze.

For tonight, aforementioned west coast trough quickly zips over
the Rockies and starts to close off over northeast Wyoming into
southwest South Dakota. This will result in precipitation chances
starting to spread over southern and western North Dakota.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Low will push easterly over southern South Dakota/northern
Nebraska on Sunday with precipitation chances spreading over much
of our area. By Monday, low will finally push its way into
southern Minnesota. Precipitation forecast continues to place the
higher rainfall amounts over southern North Dakota into the James
River Valley where around an inch is possible. By Monday, western
areas should begin to clear, but windy conditions are expected
over much of the area on the backside of the low. Windiest
locations will be over the James River Valley closer to the low. 

A brief reprieve from precipitation possible early Tuesday before
a clipper system makes its way into the area, bringing widespread
precipitation chances through Wednesday. 


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period.




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