Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kbis 190013 
afdbis

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
613 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019

Update...
issued at 613 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019

A quiet overnight is expected across western and central North
Dakota. Will continue to evaluate banded snowfall potential for
Tuesday night into Wednesday, especially north of I-94 with the
soon to be incoming 00 UTC suites.

&&

Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 151 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019

Forecast concerns include the chance for accumulating snow and
some freezing rain, which will overlap the short and long term
periods.

Beginning with this afternoon, a warm front extended across
eastern North Dakota with higher pressure to the west in Montana.
The warm front will be the focus for clouds and rain as it moves
east this afternoon and evening.

Subsidence to the west is currently clearing clouds well into
central North Dakota, and this will continue east into this
evening.

Mild air and good mixing will support highs this afternoon into
the lower and mid 50s west and south central, and at least into
the lower 40s east.

For tonight, after skies clear east this evening, there will likely
be some return cloud cover in weak cold advection into the north
central and east overnight.

For Tuesday, the next shortwave trough, currently coming onshore over
the northwest US, will make its way through rockies into teh
northern plains by late afternoon Tuesday. There will be a chance
of rain by late afternoon west. Otherwise it will be dry Tuesday
over the rest of teh region. Highs should be in the lower 40s
south and mid to upper 30s north.

Long term...(tuesday night through monday)
issued at 151 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019

The extended forecast will see the remainder of the system move
through the region. Cooler air moving into the north will support
mainly a change to snow across northwest and north central North
Dakota Tuesday night into Wednesday.

There is evidence from frontogenetic forcing there could be some
banding for heavier snow amounts, and models have been increasing
the precipitation amounts a bit.

Consensus quantitative precipitation forecast forecasts a little better than a quarter inch
across the northwest, with the resultant snow amounts between 2
and 4 inches from far northwest into north central North Dakota by
Wednesday evening. With the banding snow possible, we may see over
4 inch snow amounts in northwest North Dakota. Will hold off
issuing any headlines at this time due to uncertainty in the
amounts of frontogenetic forcing.

In addition, we expect some freezing rain or freezing drizzle to
impact southwest into central North Dakota Wednesday. A lack of
ice crystals aloft will be the primary source of the freezing
precipitation as dry air aloft gets drawn into the region.

Wednesday and Thursday should be cool, from the mid 20s to mid
30s.

After this, the remainder of the extended looks dry with
moderating temperatures back into the 30s to mid 40s.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 613 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019

MVFR stratus will spread across northwest and most of central
North Dakota through the night and into Tuesday morning, and
slowly clear through the afternoon. MVFR/IFR conditions is stratus
and snow will develop Tuesday evening and night across most of
western and central North Dakota, especially north of a line from
kdik-kbis-kjms.

&&

Bis watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations