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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
158 am CDT Sat Sep 21 2019


Issued at 154 am CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for another hour, and
should be able to expire within the hour as storms have congealed
into a heavy rain threat now. Modified grids to match latest

Update issued at 1126 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms moving north/northeast
out of northwestern South Dakota will move into south central ND
over the next hour or two. Thus we expanded Severe Thunderstorm
Watch number 656 westward to include south central ND where these
storms will track into.

Update issued at 920 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Latest local radar continues to show a regeneration of thunderstorms
over south central ND, near the proximity of a slow moving cold
front which is parallel to the upper flow. NAM has a good
initialization this evening which continues to produce more
precipitation overnight across south central into The Turtle
mountains. A couple of surface low pressures will ride up along
the front through 12z Saturday. Flash Flood Watch in effect for
Sheridan/Wells/Burleigh and Kidder counties until 7 am CDT
Saturday. Flood warnings will likely be needed given the amount of
additional rainfall expected overnight.

Update issued at 547 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Cold front located from just west of Minot south to Glen Ullin.
Severe discrete storms continue merge together into a cluster
along and ahead of the front. No change to the current forecast or
the ongoing Severe Thunderstorm Watch which continues until 10 PM
CDT for most of central ND. More thunderstorms will move from
South Dakota north this evening through tonight. These storms will
be more attached with the upper level low and stronger forced
ascent that is progged to approach later tonight through Saturday.

Update issued at 419 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Quick update for thunderstorms forming in south central North


Short term...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 203 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 654 has been issued for central North
Dakota this afternoon and evening.

Organized line of thunderstorms has formed along the cold front
similar to cam model forecast. The href ensemble depicts some
short to medium length supercells tracking northeast along the
front and nothing has changed to the anticipated scenario and
storm Mode, with a linear mesoscale convective system expected to form and track across
central into eastern North Dakota through this evening.

A secondary thrust of severe weather may be possible across
southwest and south central North Dakota late this evening and
overnight as the cam models now suggest.

Saturday will see widespread showers and and scattered
thunderstorms as the main upper low tracks into the region.

In addition to the severe weather, heavy rains will be a concern,
although current indications are the rainfall will not completely
overlap the September rains from last 2 weeks.

Long term...(saturday night through friday)
issued at 203 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

After this rain event, mainly dry weather is forecast through
Tuesday, with scattered showers Wednesday through Friday. Much
cooler weather Wednesday through Friday.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)

Issued at 154 am CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Showers and scattered thunderstorms with heavy rain will be the
main threat for the remainder of tonight. Some locally gusty winds
with stronger storms possible through 12z. MVFR to IFR cigs can
be expected this taf period with the precipitation. Conditions
improve west to east Saturday.


Bis watches/warnings/advisories...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 am CDT this morning for ndz022-023-035-



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