Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kbis 212301 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
601 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

issued at 601 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Latest water vapor imagery loop shows the 500mb low now into
southern Manitoba with the attending shortwave trough slicing
across central ND. Main area of rain over north central ND
continues to decrease in coverage, and farther south, isolated
showers scooting through south central and the James River Valley
are also waning with time. Weak cyclonic flow with another
shortwave embedded within it extends back into eastern Montana
this evening resulting in isolated showers. Expect all activity to
diminish through sunset per current gridded forecast. No updates
at this time.


Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 251 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Strong low pressure system sits over the region this afternoon.
Widespread rain has been persistent over north central North Dakota
since noon, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms,
elsewhere. As the low slowly drifts eastward, expect chances for
showers and isolated storms to end from west to east this evening.

Cloud cover should diminish overnight, but cyclonic flow aloft may
prevent skies from totally clearing. Lows tonight will mainly be in
the 40s.

Sunday will be dry with clearing skies as high pressure begins to
build over the area. Still expecting slightly below normal daytime
highs, generally in the 60s.

Long term...(sunday night through saturday)
issued at 251 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Surface high pressure will remain situated over the central Continental U.S. On
Monday as upper level ridging builds over the northern plains. This
will allow temperatures to climb into the 70s Monday afternoon as
dry weather continues through the day.

An upper level trough is forecast to push down from Canada on
Tuesday. This will bring a chance of showers and isolated daytime
thunderstorms to the area, along with cooler temperatures. As the
trough moves off to the east on Wednesday, flow aloft will become
northwesterly. Would not be surprised to see scattered afternoon
showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder under this cyclonic
flow regime.

Models indicate a progressive synoptic pattern through the rest of
next week, with mean troughing over the western Continental U.S.. this pattern
may give US several chances for rain and below normal


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 601 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Gusty northwest winds 15kt to 25kt can be expected through 02z
Sunday, then becoming light. Brief period of MVFR cigs behind the
exiting area of rain from earlier this afternoon at kmot will
improve to VFR by sunset. Elsewhere, VFR cigs/vsbys this taf
period with westerly winds to around 10kt.


issued at 251 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Scattered to widespread rain showers continue across north central
North Dakota, north of the areas of heavy rain Friday night
through Saturday morning. A few thunderstorms are moving quickly
east over the current areal Flood Warning. These isolated storms
are not expected to influence the ongoing flooding problems. The
current areal Flood Warning continues through Sunday morning.
After coordinating with affected emergency managers, we will
likely end the areal Flood Warning on Sunday unless additional
flooding issues arise.


Bis watches/warnings/advisories...



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations