Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbgm 251051
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
651 am EDT sun Aug 25 2019
high pressure will keep fair weather over New York and
Pennsylvania through Tuesday. Then a cold front could bring a
few thunderstorms to the region Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Near term /through Monday/...
610 am update...
a few areas of patchy drizzle have been detected on radar in
portions of Delaware and Sullivan counties, moving westward.
Added mention of this in the forecast for these two locations
and the immediate surrounding areas until 12z. After 12z, any
remaining drizzle should dissipate. Otherwise, forecast remains
overall, a very quiet period is in store through Monday with a
dry and seasonably cool airmass in place.
Today and tonight: after early morning valley fog dissipates,
expecting a partly sunny day across the area as high pressure
centered over southeastern Canada will be in control. An upper
level low centered over the southern New England coast will
be the main reason why there will be more clouds mixing in with
the sunshine. Despite the presence of this upper level low, the
dry airmass in place will prevent any shower activity. Highs
will likely be in the upper 60s to mid 70s, which is a bit below
normal for this time of the year. Then expecting a mostly clear
night, with patchy valley fog once again developing. Lows will
once again be chilly, mainly in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Some
areas in the higher elevations of the Catskills will likely get
down to the lower 40s.
Monday: a very similar day to today will be in store with early
morning patchy valley fog. Main differences will likely be less
cloud cover/more sunshine and slightly warmer temperatures
(highs in the lower to mid 70s) as high pressure remains in
control and slight upper level ridging building in.
Short term /Monday night through Tuesday night/...
high pressure moves off the coast of New England on Tuesday with
warm/moist SW return flow developing over the region. A warm
front will push northward across the area on Tuesday with a cold
front entering western New York late Tuesday night. Have kept low pops
through the period as subsidence aloft should limit any shower
activity as the warm front passes. Also, the suite of model
guidance is in good agreement that the cold front should be
moving slow enough that the bulk of the rainfall will hold off
Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
the previously mentioned cold front is still projected to move
through our region on Wednesday. The front enters our western
forecast zones Wednesday morning, so with showers and cloud
cover moving in so early in the day, instability will be
lacking. However, can't rule some embedded thunderstorms,
especially as the front pushing into our eastern zone late
Wednesday afternoon. The cold front exits the region Wednesday
night and showers should come to an end.
Surface high pressure builds in on Thursday with upper trough
also overhead. With the cold temperatures aloft and west-
northwest fetch off the lake bringing in moisture, could see a
slight chance for an isolated shower with diurnal heating
High pressure will then likely hold through the end of the week
and possibly into the first half of next weekend.
Aviation /12z Sunday through Thursday/...
mainly VFR conditions are expected through this taf period. The
one exception will likely be at kelm at both the beginning and
end of the taf period. Valley fog will gradually dissipate this
morning there, but will likely remain IFR until around 14z as
it does so. Then late tonight/early Monday morning, valley fog
is expected to form again at kelm after 07z with occasional IFR
conditions expected after 09z.
Winds will be becoming easterly at around 7 kts by this
afternoon. Then light and variable winds expected tonight.
Monday...VFR, except early morning fog likely at kelm.
Monday night and Tuesday...VFR.
Tuesday night through Wednesday night...restrictions possible
in showers and storms.