Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbgm 150633
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
233 am EDT sun Sep 15 2019
High pressure will build into the region today but quickly give
way to a cold frontal passage on Monday with some showers. High
pressure then builds back into the region through late week.
Near term /through Monday/...
Lingering moisture from the previous system has lead to fog and
low stratus being around early this morning. We linger the
cloud cover longer than model guidance into the mid-morning as
per usual occurrence around here. More in the way of sunshine
is expected for this afternoon before clouds increase again
ahead of the next shortwave. Highs today look warmer in
northeast PA where clouds will be later to arrive. 925 mb
modeled temperatures indicate model guidance may be a touch
cool in these areas and may get into the upper 70's. More in the
way of cloud cover ahead of the next shortwave will keep high
temperatures a few degrees cooler further north.
A shortwave looks to move through late Sunday afternoon through
the evening hours across the New York thruway region. Moisture looks
rather limited but sufficient enough for a few light showers
Sunday evening. Another shortwave looks to track a little
further south by Monday morning resulting in a few showers for
the remainder of the region. These showers should quickly move
east of the region by Monday night. Many spots will only fall to
around 60 Sunday night with the clouds. A push of cooler air
behind the second shortwave should result in highs only getting
to 70 for many locations on Monday.
Short term /Monday night through Tuesday night/...
Monday night through Tuesday...
Main concerns in the short term are focused on the chance for rain
showers dropping north to south across the region on Monday along a
weak cold front...with mild temperatures and quiet weather into the
middle of the week.
Upper level short wave and associated surface cold front will move
S/southeast from the eastern Great Lakes into the nrn mid Atlantic region
on Monday. There does appear to be some instability south of the
front, along with a decent amount of deep layer moisture, but
shallow lapse rates and weak upper level dynamics should limit the
chances for precip to mainly scattered rain showers. The threat for
thunderstorms appears to be low enough not to include in the
forecast at this point.
Temperatures are expected to be fairly mild on Monday with highs in
the upper 60s and lower 70s in NY, and into the mid to upper 70s in
NE PA. Cool overnight lows Monday night into the upper 40s and lower
50s, with potentially patchy fog in the valleys.
Large area of high pressure at the surface and heights rising aloft
across the Great Lakes will bring in mostly sunny skies, quiet
weather and gradually warming temperatures. Highs on Tuesday will
inch upward into the lower to mid 70s.
Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Tuesday night through Friday...
Very quiet weather conditions through the rest of the week with high
pressure dominating at the surface and a high amplitude ridge axis
rotating slowly east across the region. Weather conditions will be
relatively quiet with a bubble of warm air bringing afternoon high
temperatures into the 70s and potentially low 80s.
Aviation /06z Sunday through Thursday/...
fairly high confidence of IFR/LIFR fog and low stratus for kavp,
kelm and kbgm through the overnight. More uncertainty is
present at kith and krme where fog formation is possible toward
sunrise still. Ceilings will be slow to break up through mid-
morning then VFR conditions into tomorrow night. Winds look to
be under 10 knots throughout the taf period.
Monday...mainly VFR, though a small chance of showers/brief
Monday night through Friday...VFR except late night/early
morning valley fog probable for at least kelm; possibly others.