Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbgm 072023
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
323 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2019
becoming mostly clear, calm and cold overnight as high pressure
builds over the region. Dry and seasonable weather is expected
Sunday, followed by periods of rain and warmer temperatures
Monday and Tuesday. Then, turning much colder mid to late week
with lake effect snow showers around.
Near term /through Sunday night/...
Expansive surface high pressure will provide a mostly clear and
cold night. Strong radiational cooling is expected, especially
during the first half of the night. Lows will likely drop to the
single digits across portions of Oneida County and the western
Catskills with teens expected elsewhere. Temperatures may begin
to rise a bit after midnight as high pressure begins to move
east of the area along with increasing higher clouds and south
Temperatures moderate a bit on Sunday as the high pressure
system moves east of the area, and a warm front pushes through
bringing a southerly flow. Highs are expected to be in the mid
30s to lower 40s. With a tightening pressure gradient, it will
become breezy during the late morning and afternoon hours. The
strongest winds are expected across ridges and north/south
valleys of The Finger lakes and Susquehanna region. In these
areas expect south winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.
Elsewhere, look for south winds of 8-15 mph with gusts near 25mph.
Otherwise, expecting a partly sunny day with increasing clouds
late in the day in the western zones ahead of the next system.
It should remain dry with increasing clouds prior to midnight
Sunday night. Temperatures fall off a few degrees in the
evening, especially east...bottoming out between 30-35.
Temperatures then slowly rise a few degrees after midnight.
There will be a low chance for rain showers after midnight
(possibly mixed with isolated pockets of light freezing rain or
sleet east and north) but precipitation amounts will be very
light, under 0.05" by daybreak Monday. Temperatures should be
above freezing, in the mid to upper 30s just about everywhere by
daybreak. Decided to not yet mention any wintry mix in the hwo,
as confidence is very low in any measurable ice.
Short term /Monday through Tuesday Night/...
Lake runner pushes warm air and moisture into the area Monday.
System is fast moving and with the zonal flow does not tap
deeply into the subtropical moisture lurking over the southeast and
Gulf so while moderate rain and isolated heavy rain is possible,
hydrological concerns are limited for now. Track does put US in
the preferred entrance region of the jet so steady moderate
rain is expected Monday into Monday night before a dry slot
works in ahead of the cold front. That front passes through
early Tuesday followed by colder air that slowly turns the rain
to snow. Some brief anafront precipitation in the colder air
could give US a quick coating of snow, but by Tuesday night just
snow showers are expected, perhaps being lake enhanced before
morning, with additional light accumulations.
Temperature trend through the period will be non-diurnal as they
rise all day Monday and Monday night, then begin to fall on
Tuesday with the cold advection.
Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
255 PM update...
Long term is generally a tranquil period with a slow warm up.
Some lake effect snow showers are possible early on, then the
upper trough and surface high slides east allowing for a
southwest flow to develop bringing increasingly milder air into
Once again made some minor adjustments to the period in the
weather and pop grids otherwise have stayed the course.
Previous discussion continues below.
430 am update...
we return to an Arctic regime later this week.
Strong cold air advection will begin Tuesday night which
continues right through Wednesday night. 850mb temperatures
start Wednesday morning around minus-10 celsius but further
plummet to between minus-15 and minus-20 celsius by Wednesday
evening, which persists into Thursday. This will indeed be a
cold air mass with highs of lower 20s-lower 30s Wednesday and
then only upper teens-upper 20s Thursday as the Arctic high
passes overhead. Overnight lows for Wednesday night-Thursday
night, will be mainly teens but perhaps some single digits.
With low level flow veering westerly Wednesday to eventually
northwesterly Wednesday night-early Thursday, we can anticipate
lake effect snow showers for much of the region with perhaps
more significant accumulations occurring north of the New York
thruway. The air mass appears quite supportive of lake snows
with the dendritic growth zone down in The Heart of the mixed
boundary layer. This will be figured out with more certainty in
We get into a moderating return flow on the back side of the
departing high Friday, with dry weather and highs forecast back
into the upper 20s-mid 30s.
Aviation /20z Saturday through Thursday/...
a few lingering light lake effect snow showers or flurries will
be near the cny terminals for a few more hours this afternoon.
This will create borderline MVFR/VFR ceilings at krme, ksyr, kith
and kbgm through about 20-21z. Localized MVFR vsby restrictions
also possible in -shsn, again, mainly through 21z. Kelm and
kavp should stay VFR this afternoon, with bkn ceilings 4-5k ft agl.
High pressure builds overhead this evening with clearing skies
and VFR conditions. Sct to bkn mid and high level clouds move
back into the area late tonight and Sunday morning; especially
north. Low level wind shear is likely to develop Sunday morning,
after 12z, with a SW (210 deg) low level jet between 35-50 kts
at 2k ft agl.
Winds this afternoon will be northwesterly at 8-15 knots,
before becoming light and variable this evening. Winds turn
south-southwest Sunday morning, quickly increasing between 10-20
knots (except staying east-southeast less than 10 kts at krme)
Sunday night...mainly VFR, with MVFR ceilings possible late.
Monday and Tuesday...restrictions likely with a broad area of
rain across the region.
Wednesday...restrictions possible in lake effect snow showers.
Thursday...a few lingering snow showers north near ksyr and
krme; otherwise VFR expected.