Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

000 
FXUS61 KBGM 222317
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
717 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move east of the region tonight with
rain ending from west to east. High pressure will then build 
into the region leading to a dry period on Thursday. Another
cold front will then move through the region on Friday with our
next chance of showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
630PM Update...
Little change with this update, apart from adjusting
temperatures down slightly this evening and starting to pull 
back a little earlier on rain chances across our westernmost 
zones. Previous discussion continues below.


A cold front will sweep through the region tonight with a band
of rainfall. Moderate rainfall at times should lead to total
rainfall from 1/2 to one inch. Clouds should linger through most
of the night and into Wednesday. Temperatures will be very slow
to fall this evening ahead of the cold front then fall fairly
rapidly after the frontal passage. Lows tonight should fall into
the 40's for most of the region. 

Tomorrow and Tomorrow night: 

With the west and northwest winds bringing in additional 
moisture off of Lake Ontario clouds will be more persistent in 
NY. More in the way of clearing should take place in PA. With 
the cooler airmass, Highs should only get into the 50's for most
of the region. Modeled soundings are showing the potential for 
some 20 mph winds to make it down to the surface in the 
afternoon. More in the way of clearing should occur tomorrow
night as high pressure builds into the region with lows in the
30's.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...

Period features ridging off the SE coast and a cold front trying
to push east out of the Great Lakes. Ridge slows the progress of
the front as ripples of low pressure race to the northeast in
the southwest flow aloft. The chance for showers increases 
through the period as the front drops into the area, with the 
highest chance over the western and northern zones. There are 
model forecast differences in the position and timing of the 
front, which of course is typical when the surface front lies 
parallel to the upper flow. Overall though any rain that falls 
will be relatively light as the systems moving through are weak.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...

Little change to the extended. Did make some adjustments to the
weather grids to remove the frost from the period as the 
growing season has ended. Also removed the fog for now as that
is a bit too much detail that far out. 

Previous discussion continues below. 

The long term will begin with an active weather pattern as an 
upper level wave spreads showers into the northwestern third of
our forecast area. 

Northwesterly flow behind the wave will cause lake enhanced rain
showers Friday night into early Saturday before a dome of high
pressure slides across NY and PA and cuts off the rain showers
Saturday afternoon.

A cyclone rotating into MI will cause isolated shower activity
over our forecast area for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Mainly MVFR ceilings and visibilities with periods of rain. 
Ceilings lift to VFR through the night but lower confidence 
exists with the timing that the ceilings lift. Right now it
appears most sites will have lifting ceilings during the 
overnight hours. Winds gradually becoming more west to northwest
throughout the TAF period. A few wind gusts Wednesday afternoon
could reach 20 knots. 

Outlook...


Wednesday night through Friday morning...mainly VFR with IFR 
valley fog possible in the early mornings.
 
Friday through Sunday...Possible restrictions in showers. 
Highest chances for showers Friday and Sunday. 

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWG

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations