Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbgm 132030
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
330 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019
record cold Arctic air remains over the region. Lake effect
snow gradually diminishes southeast of Lake Ontario this
morning up to about midday after dropping light fluffy
accumulations. Temperatures trend a bit milder Thursday into
Friday, yet still below average for mid November. Another blast
of cold air moves in for the first half of the weekend.
Near term /through Thursday/...
330 PM update...
With this latest update, any lingering lake effect snow chances
have been removed. Skies are staying mainly clear across most of
the area, with temperatures generally in the 20s across central
New York and in the upper 20s to low 30s across NE PA.
Previous discussion continues below.
Into tonight, the ridge begins to slide eastward, with a shift
to south/southwest flow helping leading to warm air advection
and an increase in mid- to high-level clouds from west to east
across our forecast area. Temperatures earlier this evening are
expected to quickly drop back into the teens east of I-81, and
the upper teens to low 20s across The Finger lakes northward to
the Syracuse area. Temperatures should then begin to slowly
Temperatures will continue to rise Thursday, peaking generally
in the 30s under cloudy skies. A few flurries cannot be ruled
out especially from The Finger lakes through the western Mohawk
Valley as a weak shortwave passes through, but soundings staying
very dry at low to mid levels, it is more likely that little if
any flakes will actually reach the ground. Otherwise, Thursday
turns breezy again with winds gusting up to around 20mph.
Short term /Thursday night through Friday night/...
238 PM update...
weather conditions through the short term will remain on the
quiet side as a weak upper wave tracks through the eastern Great
Lakes into eastern Canada and nrn New England Friday
morning...and a cold but dry air mass drops in from the north
behind this departing system with some lake snow showers
possible into Friday night.
Weak high pressure at the surface from the Ohio Valley into srn
New England will be strong enough to keep condition dry most of
Thursday night and Friday morning for a good portion of central
New York and NE PA. A modest southwesterly flow should be enough to
keep temperatures in the mid to upper 20s. Cloud cover will
increase Friday morning with light rain and/or snow showers
encroaching from the northwest through the afternoon. During the over
night hours Friday into early Saturday morning the air mass
behind the front will push in from the north. This near Arctic-
type air mass will have 850mb temps around -13c. Scattered lake
effect snow showers are possible during this time, but the
limiting factors will be the lack of sufficient boundary layer
moisture and the shallow depths of the mixed layer as
well...only around 5k ft. The wind is also expected to have a
more northerly component to it...which also cuts back on the
fetch/residence time over a body of water. Snow showers should
be over by sunrise.
High temperatures on Friday will be noticeably warmer...into
the upper 30s and lower 40s. Friday night lows will likely dip
back into the teens.
Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/...
238 PM update...
a large area of high pressure over the region will dominate
much of the weekend and into early next week. The synoptic flow
will slow down during this time as high pressure gets squeezed
between a developing low off the sern US coast and the next
incoming upper trough from the northern plains. The coastal low
is expected to remain well off the coast as it tracks to the
north into next week. Our next chance of precipitation will come
with the approaching trough to the west in the form of some
light rain/snow mix changing to rain, and then back to snow
Monday night through the day Tuesday.
Temperatures will be on the cooler side Saturday with highs
only into the mid to upper 20s in central New York...and into the
lower to mid 30s over NE PA. Lows Saturday night could approach
record lows once again...into the teens. Temperatures will
become milder into early next week with highs and lows back to
Aviation /21z Wednesday through Monday/...
stubborn patchy bands of lake effect snow and clouds continue to
lead to temporary MVFR restrictions at ith and bgm over the next
couple of hours. Otherwise, skies are turning mainly clear
across all terminals this afternoon. Winds turn increasingly
calmer into the early evening before shifting to the southeast
overnight, and while there will be an increase in high level
clouds overnight from west to east, VFR conditions are expected
to continue through the rest of the taf period.
Winds shifting to the south/southwest into Thursday will
increase to around 7 to 10 kts, with gusts up to around 15 to
Thursday night through Friday midday...VFR.
Late Friday afternoon-evening...possible ceiling restrictions
across the New York terminals, and chance of snow showers mainly ksyr-
krme, due to a passing cold front with gusty northwest winds.
Saturday through Sunday...VFR.