Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbgm 231935
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
335 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2019
a weak front will cross the region today with showers and
possibly thunderstorms. An upper low will be overhead for
Tuesday bringing a few more showers. Dry weather will return for
Wednesday, before another front with showers moves through
Near term /through Tuesday/...
330 PM update...
This latest update continued to push back the timing of showers
and storms associated with the cold front in western New York by a
couple hours. Better chances move into our far Finger Lakes
region up through Oneida County over the next hour, with the
best window across our central New York and NE PA zones between 22z
and 0z, then gradually moving out of far NE PA and the western
Catskills after 0z.
Previous discussion continues below.
Cape remains very limited, only peaking at 500 j/kg
ahead of the front so far, but with shear remaining healthy at
up to 40kts, still keeping in thunder mainly for the afternoon.
Given this amount of shear, will keep in a risk for strong to
marginally severe wind gusts in the strongest of storms - and
the latest Storm Prediction Center outlook would be in agreement, with a marginal
risk for storms with strong wind gusts now expanded across our
Showers largely taper off by 6z behind the exiting front - but
we can't entirely rule out additional showers over night and
throughout the day Tuesday with shallow, low-level moisture
wrapping around the back side of the exiting closed low tracking
along the New York/Canada border. Showers into Tuesday will be most
likely along and north of the thruway.
Temperatures haven't changed much with lows tonight in the low
and mid 50s. Tuesday will be cooler but still near average.
Highs in the 60s to around 70 for Scranton area. Coldest in cny
across the hilltops of the North Branch Susquehanna region to
the Catskills and Tug Hill.
Short term /Tuesday night through Thursday night/...
230 PM update...
quiet conditions are expected midweek until our next front
brushes by the area late Thursday with a chance of showers.
A high pressure center will pass across the southern
Appalachians Tuesday night into Wednesday, yet with a surface
ridge drifting over our region as well. An upper ridge will also
drift overhead Wednesday. Thus after a cool and partly cloudy to
clear night, with the usual patchy valley fog, we can expect dry
conditions to persist along with warming temperatures. After
lows in the 40s to near 50, highs Wednesday should get well into
the 70s other than the highest elevations.
A deep yet distant low near James Bay/Hudson Bay, will
eventually trail a cold front into our region as a nearly zonal
flow aloft pivots more southwesterly. Models have trended a bit
slower and shallower with the front as it reaches into our
region, which is not too surprising given the set up. Showers
will make their way into the region as the front weakens, while
running into dry air. Rain amounts thus appear mostly under a
tenth of an inch, and chances of thunder seem doubtful.
Temperatures will take a minor hit, especially twin tiers
northward, with shallow stratocumulus advancing into the region
and holding back diurnal heating. Highs south of the twin tiers
will still manage mid 70s-near 80, but elsewhere mid 60s-lower
70s are expected.
Clearing and cool conditions are anticipated for Thursday night
as high pressure settles overhead, with lows of 40s to near 50.
Long term /Friday through Monday/...
230 am update...
forecast adjusted towards latest multi-model blend with little
change overall. Models continue to disagree on how long, and if,
a frontal boundary will dip into the area over the weekend and
whether or not showers/perhaps thunder will occur with that.
guidance is in good agreement that high pressure quickly builds
back in behind the front Thursday night. Model solutions then
diverge for next weekend. Blend of model guidance keep chances
of rain fairly low for now, due to the uncertainty as we will
likely be on southern edge of the westerlies and along the
periphery of a broad ridge centered over the eastern U.S. Looks
more like a Summer-time pattern than the end of September. Any
perturbations coming through the flow should be able to kick off
thunderstorms as plenty of moisture and instability will be
available in this pattern. Temperatures will be well above
normal as well through the weekend.
Aviation /20z Monday through Saturday/...
130 PM update...
Additional scattered showers and storms associated with an
approaching cold front have been a couple hours slower to work
in. These could bring in brief MVFR cig and vsby restrictions
mainly to rme and syr, where heavier downpours in showers and
storms look most likely. The rest of the terminals are expected
to see lighter showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder after
20z, winding down after 0z. Still looking at breezy conditions
this afternoon as winds mainly from the SW at around 10 kts to
12 kts gust as high as 20 kts. Otherwise, mainly VFR where
showers and storms are not present, with a broken to overcast
cloud deck at around 7kft to 10kft.
Tonight, westerly winds drop back down to around 5kts, with a
temporary improvement in ceilings as lower clouds exit and mid
to high level clouds remain. After 6z, however, ceilings
lower to MVFR across all terminals, and possibly fuel alternate
at bgm and ith.
Tuesday...mainly VFR across all terminals with a broken to
overcast cloud deck at around 4-6kft for most of the morning and
afternoon. Occasional showers mainly across syr and rme
may lead to brief visibility restrictions throughout the day.
Otherwise breezy again. Winds shifting to the northwest
increase to around 10kts and may gust up to 20kts.
Tuesday night...mainly VFR with patchy fog overnight at kelm.
Wednesday...VFR conditions likely. Patchy morning fog at kelm.
Thursday...some showers may lead to brief restrictions across
Friday...mainly VFR, but some patchy morning fog possible at
Saturday...restrictions possible in showers.